luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 23, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Rangers, Mar 23, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Rangers 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 13:30 left): Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 28 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Ottawa Senators 2
New York Rangers 1

March 23, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +30 Senators lucky · −30 Rangers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 7, Rangers win 3.

  1. 1 OTT 7 NYR 2
  2. 2 OTT 4 NYR 0
  3. 3 OTT 3 NYR 0
  4. 4 OTT 5 NYR 2
  5. 5 OTT 3 NYR 1
  6. 6 OTT 2 NYR 1
  7. 7 OTT 2 NYR 1
  8. 8 OTT 0 NYR 1
  9. 9 OTT 2 NYR 3
  10. 10 OTT 1 NYR 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Senators win 70% of them, Rangers 30%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+34.9%
Senators by 213.2%
Senators by 121.4%
Rangers by 120.8%
Rangers by 25.1%
Rangers by 3+4.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Senators by 1, without the luck Senators by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators4222.59−0.59
Rangers2511.28−0.28

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:01 Hooking on the Rangers (Taylor Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 4:31 High sticking on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P1 1:57 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Juuso Parssinen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 12:58 High sticking double minor on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 4 minutes on the power play +6% OTT
P2 6:19 Too many men on the ice on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P2 2:39 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Connor Mackey): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P2 0:44 Tripping on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P3 16:33 Slashing on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P3 4:06 High sticking double minor on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play +6% OTT

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:30 Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% OTT –
2 P1 4:31 High sticking on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYR –
3 P1 1:57 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Juuso Parssinen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% OTT –
4 P2 13:14 Warren Foegele scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% OTT –
5 P2 12:58 High sticking double minor on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% OTT –
6 P3 12:57 Conor Sheary scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance +13% NYR –
7 P3 4:14 Will Cuylle’s snap shot from 25 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance +4% OTT –
8 P3 4:06 High sticking double minor on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 75% · Rangers 25%

Final margin
Senators by 1
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Senators 70% · Rangers 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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