luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 24, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Bruins, Mar 24, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Bruins 4–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Bruins had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Bruins.

The biggest swing (P2, 1:52 left): Max Domi scored on a backhand shot from 6 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Boston Bruins 2

March 24, 2026 · TD Garden

Luck index +34 Maple Leafs lucky · −34 Bruins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 7, Bruins win 3.

  1. 1 TOR 9 BOS 3
  2. 2 TOR 6 BOS 2
  3. 3 TOR 7 BOS 3
  4. 4 TOR 6 BOS 3
  5. 5 TOR 6 BOS 4
  6. 6 TOR 4 BOS 3
  7. 7 TOR 4 BOS 3
  8. 8 TOR 9 BOS 10
  9. 9 TOR 6 BOS 8
  10. 10 TOR 1 BOS 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 66% of them, Bruins 34%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+38.6%
Maple Leafs by 29.8%
Maple Leafs by 117.2%
Bruins by 116.8%
Bruins by 26.9%
Bruins by 3+10.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Bruins: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 2, without the luck Maple Leafs by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs5034.50−1.50
Bruins4022.93−0.93

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:25 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Michael Pezzetta): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BOS
P1 4:34 Hooking on the Bruins (Casey Mittelstadt): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 16:45 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P2 14:23 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P2 12:09 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BOS
P2 3:18 Slashing on the Bruins (Henri Jokiharju): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR
P2 2:07 Boarding on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 3 minutes on the power play +8% TOR
P3 15:52 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Matthew Knies): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BOS
P3 1:04 Tripping on the Bruins (Casey Mittelstadt): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR

When it happened

Bruins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Bruins were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:56 Elias Lindholm scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% BOS –
2 P2 12:33 Matthew Knies scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 17% chance +17% TOR –
3 P2 2:20 Dakota Joshua’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 38% chance +9% BOS –
4 P2 2:07 Boarding on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 3 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% TOR –
5 P2 1:52 Max Domi scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 15% chance +21% TOR –
6 P3 17:00 William Nylander scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% TOR –
7 P3 14:52 Charlie McAvoy scored on a deflected shot from 11 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% BOS –
8 P3 1:25 Morgan Geekie’s tip from 5 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +7% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 95% · Bruins 5%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 2
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Bruins
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 66% · Bruins 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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