luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 17, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Kraken, Mar 17, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Kraken 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 14:15 left): Gage Goncalves scored on a tip from 13 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Seattle Kraken 2

March 17, 2026 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +36 Lightning lucky · −36 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 6, Kraken win 4.

  1. 1 TBL 4 SEA 0
  2. 2 TBL 4 SEA 1
  3. 3 TBL 3 SEA 0
  4. 4 TBL 4 SEA 2
  5. 5 TBL 3 SEA 2
  6. 6 TBL 3 SEA 2
  7. 7 TBL 1 SEA 2
  8. 8 TBL 2 SEA 3
  9. 9 TBL 0 SEA 2
  10. 10 TBL 3 SEA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Lightning win 64% of them, Kraken 36%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+26.6%
Lightning by 214.0%
Lightning by 123.7%
Kraken by 122.0%
Kraken by 26.8%
Kraken by 3+6.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 4, without the luck Lightning by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning3852.30+2.70
Kraken2921.51+0.49

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:18 Holding on the Kraken (Shane Wright): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P1 5:25 Tripping on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P1 3:25 High sticking on the Lightning (Corey Perry): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 12:18 Cross checking on the Lightning (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SEA
P2 9:32 Hooking on the Lightning (Charle-Edouard D'Astous): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P3 4:54 Boarding on the Kraken (Bobby McMann): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:15 Gage Goncalves scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% TBL –
2 P1 3:25 High sticking on the Lightning (Corey Perry): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SEA –
3 P1 1:11 Nikita Kucherov scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 14% chance +13% TBL –
4 P2 19:03 Nikita Kucherov scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +8% TBL –
5 P2 18:53 Bobby McMann scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 7% chance +9% SEA –
6 P2 10:14 Jared McCann scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% SEA –
7 P2 9:32 Hooking on the Lightning (Charle-Edouard D'Astous): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SEA –
8 P3 15:25 Anthony Cirelli scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 25% chance +12% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 92% · Kraken 8%

Final margin
Lightning by 4
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 64% · Kraken 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 24 2025-26 games · Lightning · Kraken

More from week 24, 2025-26

Every game of week 24, 2025-26