luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 21, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Oilers, Mar 21, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Oilers 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lightning win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Lightning.

The biggest swing (P2, 7:47 left): Jake Guentzel scored on a wrist shot from 8 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Edmonton Oilers 2

March 21, 2026 · Rogers Place

Luck index +42 Lightning lucky · −42 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 6, Oilers win 4.

  1. 1 TBL 4 EDM 0
  2. 2 TBL 4 EDM 1
  3. 3 TBL 5 EDM 3
  4. 4 TBL 2 EDM 0
  5. 5 TBL 2 EDM 1
  6. 6 TBL 4 EDM 3
  7. 7 TBL 0 EDM 1
  8. 8 TBL 1 EDM 2
  9. 9 TBL 0 EDM 2
  10. 10 TBL 2 EDM 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Lightning win 58% of them, Oilers 42%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+24.0%
Lightning by 211.7%
Lightning by 122.4%
Oilers by 122.5%
Oilers by 28.3%
Oilers by 3+11.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 3, without the luck Lightning by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning4442.83+1.17
Oilers3822.31−0.31

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 8:57 Illegal check to head on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P2 6:54 Holding on the Oilers (Connor McDavid): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P2 5:13 Tripping on the Lightning (Nikita Kucherov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P2 4:26 Slashing on the Lightning (Yanni Gourde): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 4:10 Hooking on the Oilers (Max Jones): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P3 0:51 Cross checking on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play +1% EDM

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 0:23 Connor McDavid scored on a tip from 19 feetShooting · 7% chance +17% EDM –
2 P2 18:23 Anthony Cirelli scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance +17% TBL –
3 P2 8:57 Illegal check to head on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TBL –
4 P2 7:47 Jake Guentzel scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance +18% TBL –
5 P2 3:02 Nikita Kucherov scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% TBL –
6 P3 12:44 Josh Samanski scored on a shot from 43 feetShooting · 2% chance +15% EDM –
7 P3 5:40 Jason Dickinson slap, 30 ft: above crossbar (13% chance)Shooting +5% TBL –
8 P3 4:28 Nikita Kucherov scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 14% chance +9% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 84% · Oilers 16%

Final margin
Lightning by 3
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 58% · Oilers 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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