2025-26 regular season · November 1, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Maple Leafs at Flyers, Nov 1, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Maple Leafs beat the Flyers 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
The biggest swing (P2, 11:46 left): Jake McCabe scored on a snap shot from 60 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
Final
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Maple Leafs lucky · −48 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Flyers win 5.
- 1 TOR 6 PHI 2
- 2 TOR 5 PHI 2
- 3 TOR 3 PHI 1
- 4 TOR 4 PHI 3
- 5 TOR 3 PHI 2
- 6 TOR 3 PHI 4
- 7 TOR 2 PHI 3
- 8 TOR 1 PHI 3
- 9 TOR 0 PHI 3
- 10 TOR 1 PHI 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maple Leafs win 52% of them, Flyers 48%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 19.2% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 11.1% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 21.7% |
| Flyers by 1 | 22.7% |
| Flyers by 2 | 9.8% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 15.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maple Leafs | 36 | 4 | 2.48 | +1.52 |
 Flyers | 52 | 2 | 2.81 | −0.81 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 6:58 | High sticking on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 4 minutes on the power play | +8% TOR |
| P2 18:51 | Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 7:07 | Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Max Domi): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% PHI |
| P3 18:13 | High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Calle Jarnkrok): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PHI |
| P3 11:37 | Interference on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% TOR |
| P3 9:24 | Cross checking on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% PHI |
| P3 4:09 | Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% PHI |
| P3 2:38 | Boarding on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PHI |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:51 | Christian Dvorak scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 12% chance | +14% PHI | – |
| 2 | P1 13:44 | Auston Matthews scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% TOR | – |
| 3 | P1 6:58 | High sticking on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% TOR | – |
| 4 | P2 18:51 | Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PHI | – |
| 5 | P2 11:46 | Jake McCabe scored on a snap shot from 60 feetShooting · 2% chance | +21% TOR | – |
| 6 | P2 7:07 | Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Max Domi): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% PHI | – |
| 7 | P2 2:26 | Nicholas Robertson scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% TOR | – |
| 8 | P3 19:27 | Easton Cowan scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +6% TOR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maple Leafs 70% · Flyers 30%
- Final margin
- Maple Leafs by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for the Maple Leafs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maple Leafs by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Maple Leafs 52% · Flyers 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 4, 2025-26
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