Kings lucky 4 
Sharks unlucky 3 Long shot · Kings win 16% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Oct 27, 2025 – Nov 2, 2025
NHL week 4: who deserved to win
10 of 51 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Kings beat the Sharks 4–3 in a game they win 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 51 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Kings lucky 4 Sharks unlucky 3 Long shot · Kings win 16% of replays 
Sabres unlucky 3 
Bruins lucky 4 Long shot · Bruins win 20% of replays 
Devils lucky 4 Kings unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Devils win 26% of replays 
Avalanche unlucky 2 Sharks lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 26% of replays 
Predators unlucky 1 
Flyers lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 31% of replays 
Ducks lucky 3 
Panthers unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Ducks win 31% of replays 
Canucks lucky 4 
Blues unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 32% of replays 
Islanders unlucky 2 Bruins lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 34% of replays 
Maple Leafs unlucky 3 
Blue Jackets lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Blue Jackets win 38% of replays 
Jets lucky 4 
Wild unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Jets win 39% of replays 
Red Wings 2 Ducks 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 41% of replays 
Mammoth 3 
Oilers 6 Coin flip · Oilers win 42% of replays Blues 3 
Penguins 6 Coin flip · Penguins win 43% of replays 
Senators 3 
Blackhawks 7 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 43% of replays Red Wings 4 Kings 3 Coin flip · Red Wings win 43% of replays 
Lightning 4 Mammoth 2 Coin flip · Lightning win 43% of replays 
Capitals 0 
Stars 1 Coin flip · Stars win 46% of replays 
Canadiens 4 
Kraken 3 Coin flip · Canadiens win 47% of replays 
Flames 2 Flyers 1 Coin flip · Flames win 47% of replays Flames 2 Predators 4 Coin flip · Predators win 51% of replays Blackhawks 2 Oilers 3 Coin flip · Oilers win 51% of replays Maple Leafs 5 Flyers 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 52% of replays Islanders 3 Capitals 1 Coin flip · Islanders win 52% of replays Flames 3 Senators 4 Coin flip · Senators win 53% of replays Blues 2 Blue Jackets 3 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 54% of replays Flames 3 Maple Leafs 4 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 54% of replays Penguins 4 Wild 1 Coin flip · Penguins win 55% of replays Canucks 2 Wild 5 Coin flip · Wild win 56% of replays Blue Jackets 4 Sabres 3 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 56% of replays 
Rangers 4 Oilers 3 Coin flip · Rangers win 57% of replays Avalanche 4 
Golden Knights 2 Coin flip · Avalanche win 58% of replays Blackhawks 3 Jets 6 Coin flip · Jets win 59% of replays Devils 2 Sharks 5 Coin flip · Sharks win 59% of replays Capitals 3 Sabres 4 Coin flip · Sabres win 60% of replays Penguins 2 Jets 5 Replays agree · Jets win 61% of replays Devils 4 Avalanche 8 Replays agree · Avalanche win 61% of replays 
Hurricanes 1 Bruins 2 Replays agree · Bruins win 61% of replays Red Wings 5 Blues 2 Replays agree · Red Wings win 62% of replays Blue Jackets 2 Islanders 3 Replays agree · Islanders win 63% of replays Bruins 2 Senators 7 Replays agree · Senators win 64% of replays Devils 1 Ducks 4 Replays agree · Ducks win 64% of replays Penguins 2 Flyers 3 Replays agree · Flyers win 65% of replays Rangers 2 Canucks 0 Replays agree · Rangers win 65% of replays Stars 3 Panthers 4 Replays agree · Panthers win 66% of replays Stars 1 Lightning 2 Replays agree · Lightning win 68% of replays Red Wings 3 Sharks 2 Replays agree · Red Wings win 71% of replays Lightning 5 Predators 2 Replays agree · Lightning win 71% of replays Senators 3 Canadiens 4 Replays agree · Canadiens win 74% of replays Islanders 2 Hurricanes 6 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 75% of replays Golden Knights 6 Hurricanes 3 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 77% of replays Rangers 3 Kraken 2 Replays agree · Rangers win 78% of replays Week 4 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | W 4–3 @ Sharks Oct 28, 2025 | 16% | +84 |
| 2 | Bruins | W 4–3 OT vs Sabres Oct 30, 2025 | 20% | +80 |
| 3 | Devils | W 4–1 @ Kings Nov 1, 2025 | 26% | +74 |
| 4 | Sharks | W 3–2 OT vs Avalanche Nov 1, 2025 | 26% | +74 |
| 5 | Flyers | W 4–1 vs Predators Oct 30, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 6 | Ducks | W 3–2 SO @ Panthers Oct 28, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 7 | Canucks | W 4–3 SO @ Blues Oct 30, 2025 | 32% | +68 |
| 8 | Bruins | W 5–2 vs Islanders Oct 28, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 9 | Blue Jackets | W 6–3 vs Maple Leafs Oct 29, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 10 | Jets | W 4–3 OT @ Wild Oct 28, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 11 | Ducks | W 5–2 vs Red Wings Oct 31, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 12 | Oilers | W 6–3 vs Mammoth Oct 28, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 13 | Penguins | W 6–3 vs Blues Oct 27, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 14 | Blackhawks | W 7–3 vs Senators Oct 28, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 15 | Red Wings | W 4–3 SO @ Kings Oct 30, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 16 | Lightning | W 4–2 @ Mammoth Nov 2, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 17 | Stars | W 1–0 vs Capitals Oct 28, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 18 | Canadiens | W 4–3 OT @ Kraken Oct 28, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 19 | Flames | W 2–1 @ Flyers Nov 2, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 20 | Predators | W 4–2 vs Flames Nov 1, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 21 | Oilers | W 3–2 OT vs Blackhawks Nov 1, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 22 | Maple Leafs | W 5–2 @ Flyers Nov 1, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 23 | Islanders | W 3–1 @ Capitals Oct 31, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 24 | Senators | W 4–3 SO vs Flames Oct 30, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 25 | Blue Jackets | W 3–2 vs Blues Nov 1, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 26 | Maple Leafs | W 4–3 vs Flames Oct 28, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 27 | Penguins | W 4–1 @ Wild Oct 30, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 28 | Wild | W 5–2 vs Canucks Nov 1, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 29 | Blue Jackets | W 4–3 OT @ Sabres Oct 28, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 30 | Rangers | W 4–3 OT @ Oilers Oct 30, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 31 | Avalanche | W 4–2 @ Golden Knights Oct 31, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 32 | Jets | W 6–3 vs Blackhawks Oct 30, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 33 | Sharks | W 5–2 vs Devils Oct 30, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 34 | Sabres | W 4–3 SO vs Capitals Nov 1, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 35 | Jets | W 5–2 vs Penguins Nov 1, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 36 | Avalanche | W 8–4 vs Devils Oct 28, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 37 | Bruins | W 2–1 vs Hurricanes Nov 1, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 38 | Red Wings | W 5–2 @ Blues Oct 28, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 39 | Islanders | W 3–2 vs Blue Jackets Nov 2, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 40 | Senators | W 7–2 vs Bruins Oct 27, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 41 | Ducks | W 4–1 vs Devils Nov 2, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 42 | Flyers | W 3–2 SO vs Penguins Oct 28, 2025 | 65% | +35 |
| 43 | Rangers | W 2–0 @ Canucks Oct 28, 2025 | 65% | +35 |
| 44 | Panthers | W 4–3 SO vs Stars Nov 1, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 45 | Lightning | W 2–1 OT vs Stars Oct 30, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 46 | Red Wings | W 3–2 SO @ Sharks Nov 2, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 47 | Lightning | W 5–2 @ Predators Oct 28, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 48 | Canadiens | W 4–3 OT vs Senators Nov 1, 2025 | 74% | +27 |
| 49 | Hurricanes | W 6–2 vs Islanders Oct 30, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 50 | Golden Knights | W 6–3 @ Hurricanes Oct 28, 2025 | 77% | +23 |
| 51 | Rangers | W 3–2 OT @ Kraken Nov 1, 2025 | 78% | +22 |
| 52 | Kraken | L 2–3 OT vs Rangers Nov 1, 2025 | 22% | −22 |
| 53 | Hurricanes | L 3–6 vs Golden Knights Oct 28, 2025 | 23% | −23 |
| 54 | Islanders | L 2–6 @ Hurricanes Oct 30, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 55 | Senators | L 3–4 OT @ Canadiens Nov 1, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 56 | Predators | L 2–5 vs Lightning Oct 28, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 57 | Sharks | L 2–3 SO vs Red Wings Nov 2, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 58 | Stars | L 1–2 OT @ Lightning Oct 30, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 59 | Stars | L 3–4 SO @ Panthers Nov 1, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 60 | Canucks | L 0–2 vs Rangers Oct 28, 2025 | 35% | −35 |
| 61 | Penguins | L 2–3 SO @ Flyers Oct 28, 2025 | 35% | −35 |
| 62 | Devils | L 1–4 @ Ducks Nov 2, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 63 | Bruins | L 2–7 @ Senators Oct 27, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 64 | Blue Jackets | L 2–3 @ Islanders Nov 2, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 65 | Blues | L 2–5 vs Red Wings Oct 28, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 66 | Hurricanes | L 1–2 @ Bruins Nov 1, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 67 | Devils | L 4–8 @ Avalanche Oct 28, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 68 | Penguins | L 2–5 @ Jets Nov 1, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 69 | Capitals | L 3–4 SO @ Sabres Nov 1, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 70 | Devils | L 2–5 @ Sharks Oct 30, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 71 | Blackhawks | L 3–6 @ Jets Oct 30, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 72 | Golden Knights | L 2–4 vs Avalanche Oct 31, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 73 | Oilers | L 3–4 OT vs Rangers Oct 30, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 74 | Sabres | L 3–4 OT vs Blue Jackets Oct 28, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 75 | Canucks | L 2–5 @ Wild Nov 1, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 76 | Wild | L 1–4 vs Penguins Oct 30, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 77 | Flames | L 3–4 @ Maple Leafs Oct 28, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 78 | Blues | L 2–3 @ Blue Jackets Nov 1, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 79 | Flames | L 3–4 SO @ Senators Oct 30, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 80 | Capitals | L 1–3 vs Islanders Oct 31, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 81 | Flyers | L 2–5 vs Maple Leafs Nov 1, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 82 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 OT @ Oilers Nov 1, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 83 | Flames | L 2–4 @ Predators Nov 1, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 84 | Flyers | L 1–2 vs Flames Nov 2, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 85 | Kraken | L 3–4 OT vs Canadiens Oct 28, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 86 | Capitals | L 0–1 @ Stars Oct 28, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 87 | Mammoth | L 2–4 vs Lightning Nov 2, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 88 | Senators | L 3–7 @ Blackhawks Oct 28, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 89 | Kings | L 3–4 SO vs Red Wings Oct 30, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 90 | Blues | L 3–6 @ Penguins Oct 27, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 91 | Mammoth | L 3–6 @ Oilers Oct 28, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 92 | Red Wings | L 2–5 @ Ducks Oct 31, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 93 | Wild | L 3–4 OT vs Jets Oct 28, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 94 | Maple Leafs | L 3–6 @ Blue Jackets Oct 29, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 95 | Islanders | L 2–5 @ Bruins Oct 28, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 96 | Blues | L 3–4 SO vs Canucks Oct 30, 2025 | 68% | −68 |
| 97 | Panthers | L 2–3 SO vs Ducks Oct 28, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 98 | Predators | L 1–4 @ Flyers Oct 30, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 99 | Avalanche | L 2–3 OT @ Sharks Nov 1, 2025 | 74% | −74 |
| 100 | Kings | L 1–4 vs Devils Nov 1, 2025 | 74% | −74 |
| 101 | Sabres | L 3–4 OT @ Bruins Oct 30, 2025 | 80% | −80 |
| 102 | Sharks | L 3–4 vs Kings Oct 28, 2025 | 84% | −84 |