luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 30, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Oilers, Oct 30, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Oilers 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rangers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Rangers won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final (OT)

New York Rangers 4
Edmonton Oilers 3

October 30, 2025 · Rogers Place

Luck index +43 Rangers lucky · −43 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 6, Oilers win 4.

  1. 1 NYR 7 EDM 2
  2. 2 NYR 6 EDM 3
  3. 3 NYR 6 EDM 3
  4. 4 NYR 5 EDM 3
  5. 5 NYR 3 EDM 2
  6. 6 NYR 4 EDM 3
  7. 7 NYR 4 EDM 5
  8. 8 NYR 2 EDM 3
  9. 9 NYR 1 EDM 3
  10. 10 NYR 0 EDM 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Rangers win 57% of them, Oilers 43%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+25.7%
Rangers by 210.6%
Rangers by 120.9%
Oilers by 120.5%
Oilers by 29.1%
Oilers by 3+13.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 1, without the luck Rangers by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers5133.13−0.13
Oilers4232.55+0.45

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 2:44 Delaying game puck over glass on the Oilers (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P2 13:12 Holding on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P2 6:42 Tripping on the Oilers (Isaac Howard): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P3 19:32 Tripping on the Rangers (Adam Fox): 2 minutes on the power play +2% EDM
P3 0:41 High sticking on the Rangers (Mika Zibanejad): 2 minutes on the power play +11% EDM

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:16 Jonny Brodzinski scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% NYR –
2 P1 13:09 Darnell Nurse scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% EDM –
3 P2 11:12 Matt Savoie scored on a deflected shot from 4 feetShooting · 25% chance +15% EDM –
4 P2 9:36 Darnell Nurse scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 4% chance +14% EDM –
5 P3 11:42 Braden Schneider scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 11% chance +12% NYR –
6 P3 7:56 Taylor Raddysh scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance +32% NYR –
7 P3 0:41 High sticking on the Rangers (Mika Zibanejad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +11% EDM –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Rangers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 61% · Oilers 39%

Final margin
Rangers by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 57% · Oilers 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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