luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 31, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Red Wings at Ducks, Oct 31, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Red Wings 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The biggest swing (P1, 7:36 left): Leo Carlsson scored on a wrist shot from 24 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final

Detroit Red Wings 2
Anaheim Ducks 5

October 31, 2025 · Honda Center

Luck index +59 Ducks lucky · −59 Red Wings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Red Wings win 6, Ducks win 4.

  1. 1 DET 6 ANA 1
  2. 2 DET 7 ANA 4
  3. 3 DET 5 ANA 2
  4. 4 DET 6 ANA 4
  5. 5 DET 5 ANA 4
  6. 6 DET 3 ANA 2
  7. 7 DET 5 ANA 6
  8. 8 DET 3 ANA 4
  9. 9 DET 2 ANA 5
  10. 10 DET 4 ANA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Red Wings win 59% of them, Ducks 41%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Red Wings by 3+31.3%
Red Wings by 29.3%
Red Wings by 118.2%
Ducks by 117.8%
Ducks by 27.8%
Ducks by 3+15.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 3, without the luck Ducks by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Red Wings4924.02−2.02
Ducks4442.99+1.01

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:50 Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Sam Colangelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P1 14:29 Slashing on the Red Wings (Michael Rasmussen): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 19:49 Hooking on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 9:47 Holding on the Red Wings (Moritz Seider): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 9:10 Slashing on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P2 8:29 Hooking on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 4:43 Tripping on the Ducks (Olen Zellweger): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P2 4:05 Charging on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P3 19:31 Tripping on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P3 15:02 Hooking on the Ducks (Cutter Gauthier): 2 minutes on the power play +2% DET
P3 13:37 Slashing on the Red Wings (James van Riemsdyk): 2 minutes on the power play +2% ANA
P3 12:08 Holding on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +2% DET
P3 5:27 Too many men on the ice on the Ducks (ANA): 2 minutes on the power play +1% DET

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Red Wings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:07 Troy Terry scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% ANA –
2 P1 11:41 Lucas Raymond scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% DET –
3 P1 7:36 Leo Carlsson scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% ANA –
4 P2 13:25 Mason McTavish scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 6% chance +14% ANA –
5 P2 4:35 Alex DeBrincat scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 26% chance +11% DET –
6 P2 3:57 Emmitt Finnie’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +5% ANA –
7 P3 19:31 Tripping on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% ANA –
8 P3 19:05 Chris Kreider scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance +13% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Red Wings 43% · Ducks 57%

Final margin
Ducks by 3
Luck in goals
2.8 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Ducks by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Red Wings 59% · Ducks 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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