luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 2, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Mammoth, Nov 2, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Mammoth 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lightning win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Lightning.

The biggest swing (P3, 7:54 left): Jake Guentzel scored on a snap shot from 14 feet, worth 31 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Utah Mammoth 2

November 2, 2025 · Delta Center

Luck index +57 Lightning lucky · −57 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 4, Mammoth win 6.

  1. 1 TBL 5 UTA 2
  2. 2 TBL 4 UTA 2
  3. 3 TBL 2 UTA 1
  4. 4 TBL 3 UTA 2
  5. 5 TBL 2 UTA 3
  6. 6 TBL 2 UTA 3
  7. 7 TBL 1 UTA 3
  8. 8 TBL 0 UTA 2
  9. 9 TBL 2 UTA 5
  10. 10 TBL 0 UTA 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Lightning win 43% of them, Mammoth 57%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+13.0%
Lightning by 28.4%
Lightning by 121.9%
Mammoth by 121.4%
Mammoth by 211.8%
Mammoth by 3+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Lightning by 2, without the luck Lightning by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning3532.44+0.56
Mammoth3822.75−0.75

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:39 Hooking on the Mammoth (Kailer Yamamoto): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P1 6:59 Too many men on the ice on the Lightning (TBL): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 12:31 Holding on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 11:04 Holding on the Mammoth (Logan Cooley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 6:58 Tripping on the Lightning (Charle-Edouard D'Astous): 2 minutes on the power play +5% UTA

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:05 Lawson Crouse scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% UTA –
2 P1 10:31 Brayden Point’s tip from 7 feet was savedShooting · 16% chanceBrayden Point’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +7% UTA –
3 P1 10:30 Brayden Point’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +5% UTA –
4 P1 4:43 Yanni Gourde scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 10% chance +16% TBL –
5 P2 17:13 Anthony Cirelli scored on a slap shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chance +19% TBL –
6 P3 17:39 Kailer Yamamoto scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 13% chance +23% UTA –
7 P3 7:54 Jake Guentzel scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance +31% TBL –
8 P3 3:03 Jack McBain missed the net with a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance +5% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 87% · Mammoth 13%

Final margin
Lightning by 2
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 43% · Mammoth 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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