luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 28, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Panthers, Oct 28, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Panthers 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Panthers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Ducks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final (SO)

Anaheim Ducks 3
Florida Panthers 2

October 28, 2025 · Amerant Bank Arena

Luck index +69 Ducks very lucky · −69 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 3, Panthers win 7.

  1. 1 ANA 7 FLA 4
  2. 2 ANA 3 FLA 2
  3. 3 ANA 2 FLA 1
  4. 4 ANA 3 FLA 4
  5. 5 ANA 3 FLA 4
  6. 6 ANA 2 FLA 4
  7. 7 ANA 1 FLA 4
  8. 8 ANA 5 FLA 8
  9. 9 ANA 0 FLA 4
  10. 10 ANA 4 FLA 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ducks win 31% of them, Panthers 69%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+7.9%
Ducks by 26.4%
Ducks by 117.0%
Panthers by 119.2%
Panthers by 211.8%
Panthers by 3+37.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 1, without the luck Panthers by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks3022.20−0.20
Panthers4824.10−2.10

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:32 Tripping on the Panthers (Jesper Boqvist): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 7:08 Hooking on the Panthers (Evan Rodrigues): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 19:22 Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Olen Zellweger): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 16:17 Hooking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P2 10:47 Slashing on the Ducks (Ian Moore): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P2 9:26 Holding on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 9:00 Interference on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P3 6:36 Cross checking on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA
OT 2:06 Hooking on the Ducks (Mason McTavish): 2 minutes on the power play +12% FLA

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 19:09 Sam Reinhart missed the net with a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 21% chanceSam Reinhart’s backhand shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +8% ANA –
2 P2 15:47 Sam Reinhart’s snap shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 48% chance +9% ANA –
3 P2 10:01 Leo Carlsson scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 22% chance +17% ANA –
4 P2 7:33 Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% ANA –
5 P3 8:48 Anton Lundell scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 14% chance +12% FLA –
6 P3 3:06 Sam Reinhart scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 10% chance +37% FLA –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Ducks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% ANA –
8 OT 2:06 Hooking on the Ducks (Mason McTavish): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 21% · Panthers 79%

Final margin
Ducks by 1
Luck in goals
2.4 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 31% · Panthers 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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