2025-26 regular season · October 30, 2025 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Red Wings at Kings, Oct 30, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Red Wings beat the Kings 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Red Wings win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Red Wings won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Red Wings. The biggest single swing (OT, 0:39 left): A Kings goal came off the board on review (goal interference).
Final (SO)
 Detroit Red Wings | 4 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Red Wings lucky · −57 Kings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Red Wings win 4, Kings win 6.
- 1 DET 7 LAK 3
- 2 DET 4 LAK 2
- 3 DET 2 LAK 1
- 4 DET 4 LAK 3
- 5 DET 1 LAK 2
- 6 DET 2 LAK 3
- 7 DET 4 LAK 6
- 8 DET 3 LAK 5
- 9 DET 1 LAK 4
- 10 DET 0 LAK 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Red Wings win 43% of them, Kings 57%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Red Wings by 3+ | 14.6% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 9.0% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 19.6% |
| Kings by 1 | 20.7% |
| Kings by 2 | 11.2% |
| Kings by 3+ | 24.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings | 40 | 3 | 2.78 | +0.22 |
 Kings | 57 | 3 | 3.90 | −0.90 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:44 | Tripping on the Kings (Phillip Danault): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P1 5:01 | Holding on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P2 7:32 | Tripping on the Kings (Kevin Fiala): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
| P2 5:51 | Cross checking on the Kings (Joel Edmundson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
| P3 17:17 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Elmer Soderblom): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% LAK |
| P3 15:27 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% LAK |
| OT 2:02 | Slashing on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% LAK |
| OT 0:39 | A Kings goal came off the board on review (goal interference) | +50% DET |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 7:21 | Alex Laferriere scored on a backhand shot from 18 feetShooting · 9% chance | +20% LAK | – |
| 2 | P2 6:38 | Alex DeBrincat scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 6% chance | +21% DET | – |
| 3 | P2 4:14 | Marco Kasper scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance | +21% DET | – |
| 4 | P3 5:15 | Marco Kasper scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance | +10% DET | – |
| 5 | P3 1:33 | Corey Perry scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance | +37% LAK | – |
| 6 | SO | The game turned hereThe Red Wings won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +49% DET | – |
| 7 | OT 2:02 | Slashing on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +12% LAK | – |
| 8 | OT 0:39 | A Kings goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals | +50% DET | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Red Wings 31% · Kings 69%
- Final margin
- Red Wings by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Red Wings 43% · Kings 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 4, 2025-26
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