2025-26 regular season · November 1, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Devils at Kings, Nov 1, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Devils beat the Kings 4–1, but the replays lean toward the Kings: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Devils.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:48 left): Brian Halonen scored on a wrist shot from 12 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Devils.
Final
 New Jersey Devils | 4 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Devils very lucky · −74 Kings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Devils win 3, Kings win 7.
- 1 NJD 4 LAK 2
- 2 NJD 3 LAK 2
- 3 NJD 2 LAK 1
- 4 NJD 2 LAK 3
- 5 NJD 2 LAK 3
- 6 NJD 5 LAK 7
- 7 NJD 1 LAK 3
- 8 NJD 1 LAK 4
- 9 NJD 0 LAK 3
- 10 NJD 0 LAK 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Devils win 26% of them, Kings 74%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Devils by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Devils by 2 | 4.7% |
| Devils by 1 | 18.5% |
| Kings by 1 | 21.2% |
| Kings by 2 | 13.7% |
| Kings by 3+ | 38.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Devils | 29 | 3 | 1.18 | +1.82 |
 Kings | 63 | 1 | 2.98 | −1.98 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 14:10 | Holding on the Devils (Arseny Gritsyuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P2 6:10 | Hooking on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P3 18:50 | Tripping on the Devils (Timo Meier): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P3 4:21 | Tripping on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% LAK |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:38 | Nico Hischier scored on a tip from 20 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% NJD | – |
| 2 | P2 16:48 | Brian Halonen scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% NJD | – |
| 3 | P2 14:10 | Holding on the Devils (Arseny Gritsyuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% LAK | – |
| 4 | P2 12:56 | Alex Laferriere’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +3% NJD | – |
| 5 | P2 6:10 | Hooking on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% LAK | – |
| 6 | P3 18:50 | Tripping on the Devils (Timo Meier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% LAK | – |
| 7 | P3 16:51 | Dawson Mercer scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 6% chance | +6% NJD | – |
| 8 | P3 10:11 | Andrei Kuzmenko scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 12% chance | +4% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Devils 59% · Kings 41%
- Final margin
- Devils by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for the Devils
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Devils by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Devils 26% · Kings 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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