luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 28, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kings at Sharks, Oct 28, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kings beat the Sharks 4–3, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Sharks win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 54 points of win probability to the Kings.

The game turned on a luck play (P3, 11:33 left): Michael Misa’s wrist shot from 4 feet was saved, worth 47 points of win probability to the Kings.

Final

Los Angeles Kings 4
San Jose Sharks 3

October 28, 2025 · SAP Center at San Jose

Luck index +84 Kings very lucky · −84 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kings win 2, Sharks win 8.

  1. 1 LAK 2 SJS 1
  2. 2 LAK 4 SJS 3
  3. 3 LAK 4 SJS 5
  4. 4 LAK 2 SJS 4
  5. 5 LAK 2 SJS 5
  6. 6 LAK 1 SJS 4
  7. 7 LAK 0 SJS 4
  8. 8 LAK 1 SJS 6
  9. 9 LAK 1 SJS 7
  10. 10 LAK 1 SJS 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Kings win 16% of them, Sharks 84%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kings by 3+1.7%
Kings by 22.9%
Kings by 111.2%
Sharks by 112.8%
Sharks by 211.4%
Sharks by 3+60.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 goals to the Kings: the final margin was Kings by 1, without the luck Sharks by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kings2241.34+2.66
Sharks5434.95−1.95

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:15 Tripping on the Sharks (Timothy Liljegren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% LAK
P1 7:28 Slashing on the Kings (Jeff Malott): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P1 3:26 High sticking on the Kings (Brandt Clarke): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P3 17:15 Holding on the Kings (Jeff Malott): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P3 13:20 Slashing on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power play +7% SJS
P3 1:16 Delaying game puck over glass on the Kings (Joel Edmundson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% SJS

When it happened

Sharks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sharks were ahead in it, below while the Kings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 9:06 Corey Perry scored on a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 21% chance +14% LAK –
2 P2 16:39 Jeff Malott scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% LAK –
3 P2 13:17 Drew Doughty scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 5% chance +9% LAK –
4 P2 4:27 Will Smith scored on a slap shot from 13 feetShooting · 11% chance +7% SJS –
5 P2 2:44 Philipp Kurashev scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% SJS –
6 P3 15:12 Alexander Wennberg scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 4% chance +27% SJS –
7 P3 11:33 The game turned hereMichael Misa’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 26% chanceMichael Misa’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 35% chanceMichael Misa’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 35% chanceMichael Misa’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 38% chanceAlexander Wennberg’s poke shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +47% LAK –
8 P3 6:40 Brandt Clarke scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance +35% LAK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kings 5% · Sharks 95%

Final margin
Kings by 1
Luck in goals
3.5 for the Kings
Luck-adjusted margin
Sharks by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Kings 16% · Sharks 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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