luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 28, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Kraken, Oct 28, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Kraken 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Canadiens won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final (OT)

Montreal Canadiens 4
Seattle Kraken 3

October 28, 2025 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +53 Canadiens lucky · −53 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 5, Kraken win 5.

  1. 1 MTL 4 SEA 1
  2. 2 MTL 3 SEA 1
  3. 3 MTL 1 SEA 0
  4. 4 MTL 2 SEA 1
  5. 5 MTL 2 SEA 1
  6. 6 MTL 1 SEA 2
  7. 7 MTL 0 SEA 1
  8. 8 MTL 3 SEA 5
  9. 9 MTL 0 SEA 3
  10. 10 MTL 0 SEA 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Canadiens win 47% of them, Kraken 53%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+10.3%
Canadiens by 29.4%
Canadiens by 126.9%
Kraken by 127.4%
Kraken by 211.7%
Kraken by 3+14.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 1, without the luck Kraken by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3131.43+1.57
Kraken3131.75+1.25

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:15 Slashing on the Canadiens (Cole Caufield): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 3:43 Cross checking on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 1:02 Slashing on the Canadiens (Joe Veleno): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SEA
P2 6:01 Hooking on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SEA
P3 15:51 Tripping on the Kraken (Jaden Schwartz): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P3 12:03 Hooking on the Canadiens (Jayden Struble): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SEA

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 9:35 Cole Caufield scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% MTL –
2 P1 2:32 Juraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 22% chance +12% MTL –
3 P3 14:05 Alex Newhook scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 5% chance +5% MTL –
4 P3 11:03 Brandon Montour scored on a slap shot from 58 feetShooting · 3% chance +4% SEA –
5 P3 4:43 Shane Wright scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 11% chance +9% SEA –
6 P3 1:52 Jordan Eberle tip in, 7 ft: above crossbar (11% chance)Shooting +5% MTL –
7 P3 1:43 Brandon Montour scored on a slap shot from 58 feetShooting · 2% chance +43% SEA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Canadiens won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 42% · Kraken 58%

Final margin
Canadiens by 1
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 47% · Kraken 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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