Blackhawks lucky 5 
Red Wings unlucky 1 Long shot · Blackhawks win 15% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Nov 3, 2025 – Nov 9, 2025
NHL week 5: who deserved to win
12 of 53 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Blackhawks beat the Red Wings 5–1 in a game they win 15% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 53 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Blackhawks lucky 5 Red Wings unlucky 1 Long shot · Blackhawks win 15% of replays 
Sharks lucky 6 
Kraken unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 29% of replays Blackhawks lucky 5 
Canucks unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Blackhawks win 29% of replays 
Panthers unlucky 1 Sharks lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 31% of replays 
Flyers lucky 3 
Predators unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 31% of replays 
Blues lucky 3 
Sabres unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Blues win 32% of replays 
Kings lucky 3 
Penguins unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Kings win 36% of replays Penguins unlucky 3 
Maple Leafs lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Maple Leafs win 36% of replays 
Ducks lucky 4 
Golden Knights unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Ducks win 36% of replays Blackhawks unlucky 1 Kraken lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 39% of replays 
Avalanche lucky 5 Canucks unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Avalanche win 39% of replays 
Bruins lucky 4 
Islanders unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 40% of replays 
Blue Jackets 3 Canucks 4 Coin flip · Canucks win 40% of replays 
Capitals 2 
Lightning 3 Coin flip · Lightning win 40% of replays Blue Jackets 1 
Flames 5 Coin flip · Flames win 42% of replays Kraken 4 Blues 3 Coin flip · Kraken win 43% of replays Islanders 5 
Rangers 0 Coin flip · Islanders win 45% of replays Ducks 7 
Stars 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 46% of replays Canucks 5 Predators 4 Coin flip · Canucks win 47% of replays 
Senators 3 Flyers 2 Coin flip · Senators win 47% of replays Predators 2 
Wild 3 Coin flip · Wild win 47% of replays Panthers 5 Kings 2 Coin flip · Panthers win 47% of replays Blackhawks 4 Flames 0 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 48% of replays 
Hurricanes 3 Rangers 0 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 48% of replays Penguins 1 
Devils 2 Coin flip · Devils win 48% of replays Flames 0 Wild 2 Coin flip · Wild win 50% of replays 
Mammoth 2 
Canadiens 6 Coin flip · Canadiens win 50% of replays Mammoth 2 Senators 4 Coin flip · Senators win 51% of replays Kraken 1 Stars 2 Coin flip · Stars win 52% of replays Canadiens 3 Devils 4 Coin flip · Devils win 52% of replays Bruins 5 Maple Leafs 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 55% of replays 
Oilers 2 Blues 3 Coin flip · Blues win 55% of replays Senators 2 Bruins 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 56% of replays 
Jets 1 Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 57% of replays Jets 1 Sharks 2 Coin flip · Sharks win 57% of replays Jets 0 Kings 3 Coin flip · Kings win 58% of replays Mammoth 3 Maple Leafs 5 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 59% of replays Sabres 3 Hurricanes 6 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 59% of replays Capitals 3 Penguins 5 Coin flip · Penguins win 60% of replays Lightning 6 Golden Knights 3 Replays agree · Lightning win 60% of replays Wild 5 Islanders 2 Replays agree · Wild win 61% of replays Oilers 3 Stars 4 Replays agree · Stars win 61% of replays Rangers 4 Red Wings 1 Replays agree · Rangers win 63% of replays Panthers 3 Ducks 7 Replays agree · Ducks win 65% of replays Stars 5 Predators 4 Replays agree · Stars win 66% of replays Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 4 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 68% of replays Blues 1 Capitals 6 Replays agree · Capitals win 68% of replays Wild 3 Hurricanes 4 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 72% of replays Red Wings 0 Golden Knights 1 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 72% of replays Avalanche 9 Oilers 1 Replays agree · Avalanche win 73% of replays Flyers 5 Canadiens 4 Replays agree · Flyers win 73% of replays Lightning 2 Avalanche 3 Replays agree · Avalanche win 76% of replays Mammoth 2 Sabres 1 Replays agree · Mammoth win 76% of replays Week 5 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackhawks | W 5–1 @ Red Wings Nov 9, 2025 | 15% | +85 |
| 2 | Sharks | W 6–1 @ Kraken Nov 5, 2025 | 29% | +71 |
| 3 | Blackhawks | W 5–2 @ Canucks Nov 5, 2025 | 29% | +71 |
| 4 | Sharks | W 3–1 vs Panthers Nov 8, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 5 | Flyers | W 3–1 @ Predators Nov 6, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 6 | Blues | W 3–0 @ Sabres Nov 6, 2025 | 32% | +68 |
| 7 | Kings | W 3–2 @ Penguins Nov 9, 2025 | 36% | +64 |
| 8 | Maple Leafs | W 4–3 vs Penguins Nov 3, 2025 | 36% | +64 |
| 9 | Ducks | W 4–3 OT @ Golden Knights Nov 8, 2025 | 36% | +64 |
| 10 | Kraken | W 3–1 vs Blackhawks Nov 3, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 11 | Avalanche | W 5–4 OT @ Canucks Nov 9, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 12 | Bruins | W 4–3 SO @ Islanders Nov 4, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 13 | Canucks | W 4–3 vs Blue Jackets Nov 8, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 14 | Lightning | W 3–2 vs Capitals Nov 8, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 15 | Flames | W 5–1 vs Blue Jackets Nov 5, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 16 | Kraken | W 4–3 OT @ Blues Nov 8, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 17 | Islanders | W 5–0 @ Rangers Nov 8, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 18 | Ducks | W 7–5 @ Stars Nov 6, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 19 | Canucks | W 5–4 OT @ Predators Nov 3, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 20 | Senators | W 3–2 OT @ Flyers Nov 8, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 21 | Wild | W 3–2 OT vs Predators Nov 4, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 22 | Panthers | W 5–2 @ Kings Nov 6, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 23 | Blackhawks | W 4–0 @ Flames Nov 7, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 24 | Hurricanes | W 3–0 @ Rangers Nov 4, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 25 | Devils | W 2–1 SO vs Penguins Nov 8, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 26 | Wild | W 2–0 vs Flames Nov 9, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 27 | Canadiens | W 6–2 vs Mammoth Nov 8, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 28 | Senators | W 4–2 vs Mammoth Nov 9, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 29 | Stars | W 2–1 vs Kraken Nov 9, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 30 | Devils | W 4–3 OT vs Canadiens Nov 6, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 31 | Bruins | W 5–3 @ Maple Leafs Nov 8, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 32 | Blues | W 3–2 vs Oilers Nov 3, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 33 | Bruins | W 3–2 OT vs Senators Nov 6, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 34 | Ducks | W 4–1 vs Jets Nov 9, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 35 | Sharks | W 2–1 vs Jets Nov 7, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 36 | Kings | W 3–0 vs Jets Nov 4, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 37 | Maple Leafs | W 5–3 vs Mammoth Nov 5, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 38 | Hurricanes | W 6–3 vs Sabres Nov 8, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 39 | Penguins | W 5–3 vs Capitals Nov 6, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 40 | Lightning | W 6–3 @ Golden Knights Nov 6, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 41 | Wild | W 5–2 @ Islanders Nov 7, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 42 | Stars | W 4–3 SO vs Oilers Nov 4, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 43 | Rangers | W 4–1 @ Red Wings Nov 7, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 44 | Ducks | W 7–3 vs Panthers Nov 4, 2025 | 65% | +35 |
| 45 | Stars | W 5–4 @ Predators Nov 8, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 46 | Hurricanes | W 5–4 @ Maple Leafs Nov 9, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 47 | Capitals | W 6–1 vs Blues Nov 5, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 48 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 vs Wild Nov 6, 2025 | 72% | +28 |
| 49 | Golden Knights | W 1–0 vs Red Wings Nov 4, 2025 | 72% | +28 |
| 50 | Avalanche | W 9–1 @ Oilers Nov 8, 2025 | 73% | +27 |
| 51 | Flyers | W 5–4 SO @ Canadiens Nov 4, 2025 | 73% | +27 |
| 52 | Avalanche | W 3–2 vs Lightning Nov 4, 2025 | 76% | +24 |
| 53 | Mammoth | W 2–1 OT @ Sabres Nov 4, 2025 | 76% | +24 |
| 54 | Sabres | L 1–2 OT vs Mammoth Nov 4, 2025 | 24% | −24 |
| 55 | Lightning | L 2–3 @ Avalanche Nov 4, 2025 | 24% | −24 |
| 56 | Canadiens | L 4–5 SO vs Flyers Nov 4, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 57 | Oilers | L 1–9 vs Avalanche Nov 8, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 58 | Red Wings | L 0–1 @ Golden Knights Nov 4, 2025 | 28% | −28 |
| 59 | Wild | L 3–4 @ Hurricanes Nov 6, 2025 | 28% | −28 |
| 60 | Blues | L 1–6 @ Capitals Nov 5, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 61 | Maple Leafs | L 4–5 vs Hurricanes Nov 9, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 62 | Predators | L 4–5 vs Stars Nov 8, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 63 | Panthers | L 3–7 @ Ducks Nov 4, 2025 | 35% | −35 |
| 64 | Red Wings | L 1–4 vs Rangers Nov 7, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 65 | Oilers | L 3–4 SO @ Stars Nov 4, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 66 | Islanders | L 2–5 vs Wild Nov 7, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 67 | Golden Knights | L 3–6 vs Lightning Nov 6, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 68 | Capitals | L 3–5 @ Penguins Nov 6, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 69 | Sabres | L 3–6 @ Hurricanes Nov 8, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 70 | Mammoth | L 3–5 @ Maple Leafs Nov 5, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 71 | Jets | L 0–3 @ Kings Nov 4, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 72 | Jets | L 1–2 @ Sharks Nov 7, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 73 | Jets | L 1–4 @ Ducks Nov 9, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 74 | Senators | L 2–3 OT @ Bruins Nov 6, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 75 | Oilers | L 2–3 @ Blues Nov 3, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 76 | Maple Leafs | L 3–5 vs Bruins Nov 8, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 77 | Canadiens | L 3–4 OT @ Devils Nov 6, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 78 | Kraken | L 1–2 @ Stars Nov 9, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 79 | Mammoth | L 2–4 @ Senators Nov 9, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 80 | Mammoth | L 2–6 @ Canadiens Nov 8, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 81 | Flames | L 0–2 @ Wild Nov 9, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 82 | Penguins | L 1–2 SO @ Devils Nov 8, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 83 | Rangers | L 0–3 vs Hurricanes Nov 4, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 84 | Flames | L 0–4 vs Blackhawks Nov 7, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 85 | Kings | L 2–5 vs Panthers Nov 6, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 86 | Predators | L 2–3 OT @ Wild Nov 4, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 87 | Flyers | L 2–3 OT vs Senators Nov 8, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 88 | Predators | L 4–5 OT vs Canucks Nov 3, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 89 | Stars | L 5–7 vs Ducks Nov 6, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 90 | Rangers | L 0–5 vs Islanders Nov 8, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 91 | Blues | L 3–4 OT vs Kraken Nov 8, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 92 | Blue Jackets | L 1–5 @ Flames Nov 5, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 93 | Capitals | L 2–3 @ Lightning Nov 8, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 94 | Blue Jackets | L 3–4 @ Canucks Nov 8, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 95 | Islanders | L 3–4 SO vs Bruins Nov 4, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 96 | Canucks | L 4–5 OT vs Avalanche Nov 9, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 97 | Blackhawks | L 1–3 @ Kraken Nov 3, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 98 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 OT vs Ducks Nov 8, 2025 | 64% | −64 |
| 99 | Penguins | L 3–4 @ Maple Leafs Nov 3, 2025 | 64% | −64 |
| 100 | Penguins | L 2–3 vs Kings Nov 9, 2025 | 64% | −64 |
| 101 | Sabres | L 0–3 vs Blues Nov 6, 2025 | 68% | −68 |
| 102 | Predators | L 1–3 vs Flyers Nov 6, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 103 | Panthers | L 1–3 @ Sharks Nov 8, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 104 | Canucks | L 2–5 vs Blackhawks Nov 5, 2025 | 71% | −71 |
| 105 | Kraken | L 1–6 vs Sharks Nov 5, 2025 | 71% | −71 |
| 106 | Red Wings | L 1–5 vs Blackhawks Nov 9, 2025 | 85% | −85 |