Islanders lucky 3 
Devils unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 20% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Nov 10, 2025 – Nov 16, 2025
NHL week 6: who deserved to win
9 of 49 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Islanders beat the Devils 3–2 (OT) in a game they win 20% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 49 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Islanders lucky 3 Devils unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 20% of replays 
Canucks lucky 6 
Lightning unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 24% of replays Islanders lucky 4 
Golden Knights unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 34% of replays 
Rangers lucky 7 Lightning unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Rangers win 37% of replays 
Sharks lucky 2 
Wild unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 37% of replays 
Flyers lucky 6 
Blues unlucky 5 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 40% of replays 
Bruins unlucky 3 
Senators lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Senators win 40% of replays 
Kings lucky 1 Senators unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Kings win 40% of replays Sharks unlucky 1 
Kraken lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 40% of replays 
Predators 3 Rangers 6 Coin flip · Rangers win 41% of replays 
Capitals 4 
Hurricanes 1 Coin flip · Capitals win 41% of replays 
Panthers 3 Golden Knights 2 Coin flip · Panthers win 42% of replays 
Blue Jackets 4 
Oilers 5 Coin flip · Oilers win 43% of replays Islanders 3 
Mammoth 2 Coin flip · Islanders win 43% of replays Golden Knights 2 Wild 3 Coin flip · Wild win 44% of replays 
Sabres 5 
Red Wings 4 Coin flip · Sabres win 46% of replays Oilers 2 Flyers 1 Coin flip · Oilers win 47% of replays Islanders 1 
Avalanche 4 Coin flip · Avalanche win 47% of replays 
Stars 7 
Canadiens 0 Coin flip · Stars win 48% of replays Oilers 4 Hurricanes 3 Coin flip · Oilers win 49% of replays 
Maple Leafs 2 
Blackhawks 3 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 51% of replays Stars 3 Senators 2 Coin flip · Stars win 52% of replays Capitals 3 Panthers 6 Coin flip · Panthers win 52% of replays Devils 4 Blackhawks 3 Coin flip · Devils win 52% of replays Rangers 2 Blue Jackets 1 Coin flip · Rangers win 52% of replays 
Jets 5 Canucks 3 Coin flip · Jets win 52% of replays 
Ducks 3 Red Wings 6 Coin flip · Red Wings win 53% of replays Bruins 3 Canadiens 2 Coin flip · Bruins win 53% of replays Jets 4 
Flames 3 Coin flip · Jets win 54% of replays Jets 3 Kraken 5 Coin flip · Kraken win 54% of replays Lightning 3 Panthers 1 Coin flip · Lightning win 56% of replays Devils 3 Capitals 2 Coin flip · Devils win 57% of replays Blue Jackets 2 Kraken 1 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 58% of replays Kings 5 Canadiens 1 Coin flip · Kings win 59% of replays Flames 2 Blues 3 Coin flip · Blues win 59% of replays Ducks 1 Avalanche 4 Coin flip · Avalanche win 60% of replays Maple Leafs 3 Bruins 5 Replays agree · Bruins win 60% of replays Sabres 3 Avalanche 6 Replays agree · Avalanche win 61% of replays Predators 0 
Penguins 4 Replays agree · Penguins win 61% of replays Sabres 2 Mammoth 5 Replays agree · Mammoth win 61% of replays Ducks 0 Wild 2 Replays agree · Wild win 62% of replays Penguins 1 Predators 2 Replays agree · Predators win 66% of replays Oilers 4 Blue Jackets 5 Replays agree · Blue Jackets win 67% of replays Golden Knights 4 Blues 1 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 72% of replays Flyers 1 Stars 5 Replays agree · Stars win 74% of replays Kings 4 Maple Leafs 3 Replays agree · Kings win 76% of replays Sharks 0 Flames 2 Replays agree · Flames win 78% of replays Canucks 3 Hurricanes 4 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 79% of replays Red Wings 2 Rangers 1 Replays agree · Red Wings win 80% of replays Week 6 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islanders | W 3–2 OT @ Devils Nov 10, 2025 | 20% | +80 |
| 2 | Canucks | W 6–2 @ Lightning Nov 16, 2025 | 24% | +76 |
| 3 | Islanders | W 4–3 OT @ Golden Knights Nov 13, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 4 | Rangers | W 7–3 @ Lightning Nov 12, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 5 | Sharks | W 2–1 OT @ Wild Nov 11, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 6 | Flyers | W 6–5 SO @ Blues Nov 14, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 7 | Senators | W 5–3 vs Bruins Nov 13, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 8 | Kings | W 1–0 @ Senators Nov 15, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 9 | Kraken | W 4–1 vs Sharks Nov 15, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 10 | Rangers | W 6–3 vs Predators Nov 10, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 11 | Capitals | W 4–1 @ Hurricanes Nov 11, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 12 | Panthers | W 3–2 @ Golden Knights Nov 10, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 13 | Oilers | W 5–4 OT vs Blue Jackets Nov 10, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 14 | Islanders | W 3–2 OT @ Mammoth Nov 14, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 15 | Wild | W 3–2 OT vs Golden Knights Nov 16, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 16 | Sabres | W 5–4 OT @ Red Wings Nov 15, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 17 | Oilers | W 2–1 OT @ Flyers Nov 12, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 18 | Avalanche | W 4–1 vs Islanders Nov 16, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 19 | Stars | W 7–0 @ Canadiens Nov 13, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 20 | Oilers | W 4–3 OT @ Hurricanes Nov 15, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 21 | Blackhawks | W 3–2 vs Maple Leafs Nov 15, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 22 | Stars | W 3–2 OT @ Senators Nov 11, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 23 | Panthers | W 6–3 vs Capitals Nov 13, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 24 | Devils | W 4–3 OT @ Blackhawks Nov 12, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 25 | Rangers | W 2–1 SO @ Blue Jackets Nov 15, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 26 | Jets | W 5–3 @ Canucks Nov 11, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 27 | Red Wings | W 6–3 vs Ducks Nov 13, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 28 | Bruins | W 3–2 @ Canadiens Nov 15, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 29 | Jets | W 4–3 SO @ Flames Nov 15, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 30 | Kraken | W 5–3 vs Jets Nov 13, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 31 | Lightning | W 3–1 @ Panthers Nov 15, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 32 | Devils | W 3–2 SO @ Capitals Nov 15, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 33 | Blue Jackets | W 2–1 SO @ Kraken Nov 11, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 34 | Kings | W 5–1 @ Canadiens Nov 11, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 35 | Blues | W 3–2 vs Flames Nov 11, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 36 | Avalanche | W 4–1 vs Ducks Nov 11, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 37 | Bruins | W 5–3 vs Maple Leafs Nov 11, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 38 | Avalanche | W 6–3 vs Sabres Nov 13, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 39 | Penguins | W 4–0 vs Predators Nov 16, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 40 | Mammoth | W 5–2 vs Sabres Nov 12, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 41 | Wild | W 2–0 vs Ducks Nov 15, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 42 | Predators | W 2–1 OT vs Penguins Nov 14, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 43 | Blue Jackets | W 5–4 vs Oilers Nov 13, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 44 | Golden Knights | W 4–1 @ Blues Nov 15, 2025 | 72% | +28 |
| 45 | Stars | W 5–1 vs Flyers Nov 15, 2025 | 74% | +26 |
| 46 | Kings | W 4–3 OT @ Maple Leafs Nov 13, 2025 | 76% | +24 |
| 47 | Flames | W 2–0 vs Sharks Nov 13, 2025 | 78% | +22 |
| 48 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 OT vs Canucks Nov 14, 2025 | 79% | +21 |
| 49 | Red Wings | W 2–1 @ Rangers Nov 16, 2025 | 80% | +20 |
| 50 | Rangers | L 1–2 vs Red Wings Nov 16, 2025 | 20% | −20 |
| 51 | Canucks | L 3–4 OT @ Hurricanes Nov 14, 2025 | 21% | −21 |
| 52 | Sharks | L 0–2 @ Flames Nov 13, 2025 | 22% | −22 |
| 53 | Maple Leafs | L 3–4 OT vs Kings Nov 13, 2025 | 24% | −24 |
| 54 | Flyers | L 1–5 @ Stars Nov 15, 2025 | 26% | −26 |
| 55 | Blues | L 1–4 vs Golden Knights Nov 15, 2025 | 28% | −28 |
| 56 | Oilers | L 4–5 @ Blue Jackets Nov 13, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 57 | Penguins | L 1–2 OT vs Predators Nov 14, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 58 | Ducks | L 0–2 @ Wild Nov 15, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 59 | Sabres | L 2–5 @ Mammoth Nov 12, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 60 | Predators | L 0–4 vs Penguins Nov 16, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 61 | Sabres | L 3–6 @ Avalanche Nov 13, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 62 | Maple Leafs | L 3–5 @ Bruins Nov 11, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 63 | Ducks | L 1–4 @ Avalanche Nov 11, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 64 | Flames | L 2–3 @ Blues Nov 11, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 65 | Canadiens | L 1–5 vs Kings Nov 11, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 66 | Kraken | L 1–2 SO vs Blue Jackets Nov 11, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 67 | Capitals | L 2–3 SO vs Devils Nov 15, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 68 | Panthers | L 1–3 vs Lightning Nov 15, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 69 | Jets | L 3–5 @ Kraken Nov 13, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 70 | Flames | L 3–4 SO vs Jets Nov 15, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 71 | Canadiens | L 2–3 vs Bruins Nov 15, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 72 | Ducks | L 3–6 @ Red Wings Nov 13, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 73 | Canucks | L 3–5 vs Jets Nov 11, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 74 | Blue Jackets | L 1–2 SO vs Rangers Nov 15, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 75 | Blackhawks | L 3–4 OT vs Devils Nov 12, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 76 | Capitals | L 3–6 @ Panthers Nov 13, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 77 | Senators | L 2–3 OT vs Stars Nov 11, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 78 | Maple Leafs | L 2–3 @ Blackhawks Nov 15, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 79 | Hurricanes | L 3–4 OT vs Oilers Nov 15, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 80 | Canadiens | L 0–7 vs Stars Nov 13, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 81 | Islanders | L 1–4 @ Avalanche Nov 16, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 82 | Flyers | L 1–2 OT vs Oilers Nov 12, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 83 | Red Wings | L 4–5 OT vs Sabres Nov 15, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 84 | Golden Knights | L 2–3 OT @ Wild Nov 16, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 85 | Mammoth | L 2–3 OT vs Islanders Nov 14, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 86 | Blue Jackets | L 4–5 OT @ Oilers Nov 10, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 87 | Golden Knights | L 2–3 vs Panthers Nov 10, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 88 | Hurricanes | L 1–4 vs Capitals Nov 11, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 89 | Predators | L 3–6 @ Rangers Nov 10, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 90 | Bruins | L 3–5 @ Senators Nov 13, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 91 | Senators | L 0–1 vs Kings Nov 15, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 92 | Sharks | L 1–4 @ Kraken Nov 15, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 93 | Blues | L 5–6 SO vs Flyers Nov 14, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 94 | Wild | L 1–2 OT vs Sharks Nov 11, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 95 | Lightning | L 3–7 vs Rangers Nov 12, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 96 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 OT vs Islanders Nov 13, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 97 | Lightning | L 2–6 vs Canucks Nov 16, 2025 | 76% | −76 |
| 98 | Devils | L 2–3 OT vs Islanders Nov 10, 2025 | 80% | −80 |