luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 11, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Bruins, Nov 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bruins beat the Maple Leafs 5–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 10:28 left): Hampus Lindholm scored on a snap shot from 55 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bruins.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Boston Bruins 5

November 11, 2025 · TD Garden

Luck index +40 Bruins lucky · −40 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 4, Bruins win 6.

  1. 1 TOR 5 BOS 1
  2. 2 TOR 6 BOS 4
  3. 3 TOR 5 BOS 4
  4. 4 TOR 4 BOS 3
  5. 5 TOR 1 BOS 2
  6. 6 TOR 3 BOS 4
  7. 7 TOR 3 BOS 5
  8. 8 TOR 1 BOS 4
  9. 9 TOR 1 BOS 5
  10. 10 TOR 3 BOS 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 40% of them, Bruins 60%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+15.0%
Maple Leafs by 27.5%
Maple Leafs by 117.4%
Bruins by 117.7%
Bruins by 210.3%
Bruins by 3+32.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Bruins: the final margin was Bruins by 2, without the luck Bruins by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs5134.46−1.46
Bruins5554.06+0.94

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:47 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Philippe Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P1 13:51 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BOS
P1 12:02 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P1 1:34 Tripping on the Bruins (David Pastrnak): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P2 9:34 Delaying game puck over glass on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power play +1% BOS
P2 7:56 Too many men on the ice on the Bruins (BOS): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P2 3:13 Cross checking on the Bruins (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P2 2:01 High sticking on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P3 18:53 Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Max Domi): 2 minutes on the power play +2% BOS
P3 11:59 Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Max Domi): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BOS
P3 5:09 Cross checking on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR

When it happened

Bruins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Bruins were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:33 Pavel Zacha scored on a deflected shot from 18 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% BOS –
2 P1 13:19 Steven Lorentz scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% TOR –
3 P1 10:28 Hampus Lindholm scored on a snap shot from 55 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% BOS –
4 P1 2:37 Alex Steeves scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 4% chance +13% BOS –
5 P2 19:11 David Pastrnak scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +7% BOS –
6 P2 1:02 Bobby McMann scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +5% TOR –
7 P3 16:28 Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored on a snap shot from 56 feetShooting · 2% chance +14% TOR –
8 P3 10:12 David Pastrnak scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 10% chance +12% BOS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 35% · Bruins 65%

Final margin
Bruins by 2
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Bruins
Luck-adjusted margin
Bruins by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 40% · Bruins 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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