luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 16, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Lightning, Nov 16, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Lightning 6–2, but the replays lean toward the Lightning: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 45 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The game turned on a luck play (P3, 15:49 left): Kiefer Sherwood scored on a tip from 15 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Canucks. The biggest single swing (P3, 15:06 left): Linus Karlsson scored on a tip from 11 feet.

Final

Vancouver Canucks 6
Tampa Bay Lightning 2

November 16, 2025 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +76 Canucks very lucky · −76 Lightning

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 2, Lightning win 8.

  1. 1 VAN 5 TBL 3
  2. 2 VAN 2 TBL 1
  3. 3 VAN 3 TBL 4
  4. 4 VAN 1 TBL 2
  5. 5 VAN 2 TBL 4
  6. 6 VAN 0 TBL 3
  7. 7 VAN 0 TBL 3
  8. 8 VAN 1 TBL 5
  9. 9 VAN 2 TBL 7
  10. 10 VAN 1 TBL 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canucks win 24% of them, Lightning 76%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+4.1%
Canucks by 24.7%
Canucks by 115.5%
Lightning by 116.9%
Lightning by 211.9%
Lightning by 3+46.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Canucks by 4, without the luck Lightning by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks2651.73+3.27
Lightning4924.45−2.45

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 14:07 Holding on the Lightning (Scott Sabourin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VAN
P2 10:54 Holding on the Lightning (J.J. Moser): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VAN
P2 5:47 Slashing on the Canucks (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 3:16 Hooking on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P3 16:17 Interference goalkeeper on the Lightning (Scott Sabourin): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P3 0:00 Cross checking on the Canucks (Aatu Räty): 2 minutes on the power play 0% TBL

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 0:35 Nikita Kucherov scored on a slap shot from 24 feetShooting · 8% chance +17% TBL –
2 P2 15:25 Jake Guentzel scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 8% chance +13% TBL –
3 P2 10:34 Jake DeBrusk scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 35% chance +9% VAN –
4 P2 3:16 Hooking on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TBL –
5 P3 16:17 Interference goalkeeper on the Lightning (Scott Sabourin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% VAN –
6 P3 15:49 The game turned hereKiefer Sherwood scored on a tip from 15 feetShooting · 12% chance +24% VAN –
7 P3 15:06 Linus Karlsson scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 8% chance +26% VAN –
8 P3 14:09 Drew O'Connor scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% VAN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 36% · Lightning 64%

Final margin
Canucks by 4
Luck in goals
4.5 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 24% · Lightning 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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