luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 15, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Kraken, Nov 15, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Sharks 4–1, but the replays lean toward the Sharks: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P2, 3:55 left): Adam Larsson scored on a wrist shot from 49 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

San Jose Sharks 1
Seattle Kraken 4

November 15, 2025 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +60 Kraken very lucky · −60 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 6, Kraken win 4.

  1. 1 SJS 7 SEA 3
  2. 2 SJS 4 SEA 1
  3. 3 SJS 2 SEA 0
  4. 4 SJS 4 SEA 2
  5. 5 SJS 1 SEA 0
  6. 6 SJS 3 SEA 2
  7. 7 SJS 2 SEA 3
  8. 8 SJS 2 SEA 3
  9. 9 SJS 2 SEA 4
  10. 10 SJS 2 SEA 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sharks win 60% of them, Kraken 40%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+26.2%
Sharks by 211.9%
Sharks by 122.2%
Kraken by 122.2%
Kraken by 27.6%
Kraken by 3+10.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 3, without the luck Kraken by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks4512.71−1.71
Kraken3231.90+1.10

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 0:50 Hooking on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 16:08 Hooking on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SEA
P2 15:00 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P2 8:43 Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P3 18:53 Delaying game puck over glass on the Kraken (Tye Kartye): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SJS
P3 14:31 Hooking on the Sharks (Vincent Desharnais): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA
P3 12:37 Holding on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SJS
P3 5:18 Tripping on the Kraken (Frederick Gaudreau): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SJS

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:46 Jaden Schwartz scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% SEA –
2 P1 0:18 Alexander Wennberg scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance +16% SJS –
3 P2 16:08 Hooking on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SEA –
4 P2 15:00 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SJS –
5 P2 9:33 Will Smith’s deflected shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +4% SEA –
6 P2 8:43 Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SJS –
7 P2 3:55 Adam Larsson scored on a wrist shot from 49 feetShooting · 1% chance +23% SEA –
8 P2 3:17 Eeli Tolvanen scored on a slap shot from 29 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 35% · Kraken 65%

Final margin
Kraken by 3
Luck in goals
2.6 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 60% · Kraken 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 6 2025-26 games · Sharks · Kraken

More from week 6, 2025-26

Every game of week 6, 2025-26