luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 15, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Flames, Nov 15, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Flames 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Jets.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Jets won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final (SO)

Winnipeg Jets 4
Calgary Flames 3

November 15, 2025 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +46 Jets lucky · −46 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 5, Flames win 5.

  1. 1 WPG 3 CGY 0
  2. 2 WPG 3 CGY 0
  3. 3 WPG 4 CGY 2
  4. 4 WPG 4 CGY 3
  5. 5 WPG 5 CGY 4
  6. 6 WPG 3 CGY 4
  7. 7 WPG 2 CGY 3
  8. 8 WPG 1 CGY 3
  9. 9 WPG 0 CGY 3
  10. 10 WPG 1 CGY 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Jets win 54% of them, Flames 46%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+19.7%
Jets by 211.2%
Jets by 123.0%
Flames by 122.0%
Flames by 29.8%
Flames by 3+14.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 1, without the luck Jets by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets4232.63+0.37
Flames4432.41+0.59

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:57 Holding on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P3 19:02 Interference on the Flames (Connor Zary): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WPG
P3 2:47 High sticking on the Jets (Vladislav Namestnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +6% CGY
OT 1:29 Holding on the Jets (Mark Scheifele): 2 minutes on the power play +12% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 12:41 Mark Scheifele scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% WPG –
2 P2 12:08 Jake Bean scored on a snap shot from 48 feetShooting · 2% chance +21% CGY –
3 P2 11:35 Tanner Pearson scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% WPG –
4 P2 6:31 Kevin Bahl scored on a slap shot from 58 feetShooting · 2% chance +22% CGY –
5 P3 18:40 Cole Perfetti scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 30% chance +19% WPG –
6 P3 1:14 Matt Coronato scored on a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 20% chance +35% CGY –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Jets won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% WPG –
8 OT 1:29 Holding on the Jets (Mark Scheifele): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 63% · Flames 37%

Final margin
Jets by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Jets 54% · Flames 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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