luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 14, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Blues, Nov 14, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Blues 6–5, but the replays lean toward the Blues: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 52 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Flyers won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final (SO)

Philadelphia Flyers 6
St. Louis Blues 5

November 14, 2025 · Enterprise Center

Luck index +60 Flyers very lucky · −60 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 4, Blues win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 4 STL 1
  2. 2 PHI 2 STL 0
  3. 3 PHI 4 STL 3
  4. 4 PHI 3 STL 2
  5. 5 PHI 3 STL 4
  6. 6 PHI 2 STL 3
  7. 7 PHI 2 STL 4
  8. 8 PHI 1 STL 3
  9. 9 PHI 1 STL 4
  10. 10 PHI 1 STL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 40% of them, Blues 60%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+8.8%
Flyers by 27.8%
Flyers by 123.0%
Blues by 125.3%
Blues by 212.5%
Blues by 3+22.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Blues by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3451.67+3.33
Blues2752.13+2.87

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 19:12 High sticking on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P2 5:12 Tripping on the Blues (Colton Parayko): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI

When it happened

Blues’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blues were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:41 Jordan Kyrou scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% STL –
2 P1 11:42 Trevor Zegras scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% PHI –
3 P1 10:18 Jimmy Snuggerud scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% STL –
4 P2 13:06 Justin Faulk scored on a slap shot from 57 feetShooting · 2% chance +14% STL –
5 P2 1:36 Trevor Zegras scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance +21% PHI –
6 P3 19:20 Dylan Holloway scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 6% chance +24% STL –
7 P3 9:31 Owen Tippett scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 10% chance +29% PHI –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Flyers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 41% · Blues 59%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Blues by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 40% · Blues 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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