luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 10, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Devils, Nov 10, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Devils 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Devils: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Islanders won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final (OT)

New York Islanders 3
New Jersey Devils 2

November 10, 2025 · Prudential Center

Luck index +80 Islanders very lucky · −80 Devils

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 2, Devils win 8.

  1. 1 NYI 2 NJD 0
  2. 2 NYI 4 NJD 3
  3. 3 NYI 2 NJD 3
  4. 4 NYI 2 NJD 3
  5. 5 NYI 0 NJD 2
  6. 6 NYI 0 NJD 3
  7. 7 NYI 1 NJD 4
  8. 8 NYI 1 NJD 5
  9. 9 NYI 0 NJD 5
  10. 10 NYI 1 NJD 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Islanders win 20% of them, Devils 80%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+2.5%
Islanders by 23.5%
Islanders by 114.1%
Devils by 116.1%
Devils by 212.4%
Devils by 3+51.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck Devils by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders2621.33+0.67
Devils5324.21−2.21

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:22 Too many men on the ice on the Islanders (NYI): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P1 0:08 Hooking on the Islanders (Kyle Palmieri): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P3 10:50 Hooking on the Islanders (Calum Ritchie): 2 minutes on the power play +7% NJD
P3 6:44 High sticking on the Islanders (Mathew Barzal): 2 minutes on the power play +8% NJD
P3 4:01 Interference on the Devils (Paul Cotter): 2 minutes on the power play +9% NYI

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:48 Timo Meier scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 24% chance +12% NJD –
2 P2 13:05 Bo Horvat scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% NYI –
3 P3 5:58 Nico Hischier’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 19% chanceTimo Meier’s poke shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance +11% NYI –
4 P3 5:44 Timo Meier’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +9% NYI –
5 P3 4:01 Interference on the Devils (Paul Cotter): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% NYI –
6 P3 2:53 Kyle Palmieri scored on a poke shot from 14 feetShooting · 10% chance +38% NYI –
7 P3 0:05 Simon Nemec scored on a slap shot from 56 feetShooting · 3% chance +48% NJD –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Islanders won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 9% · Devils 91%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
3.2 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Devils by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 20% · Devils 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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