luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 10, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Rangers, Nov 10, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Predators 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rangers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 33 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P1, 1:53 left): Vladislav Gavrikov scored on a wrist shot from 40 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final

Nashville Predators 3
New York Rangers 6

November 10, 2025 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +59 Rangers lucky · −59 Predators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 6, Rangers win 4.

  1. 1 NSH 4 NYR 0
  2. 2 NSH 5 NYR 2
  3. 3 NSH 3 NYR 0
  4. 4 NSH 5 NYR 3
  5. 5 NSH 3 NYR 2
  6. 6 NSH 3 NYR 2
  7. 7 NSH 3 NYR 4
  8. 8 NSH 2 NYR 3
  9. 9 NSH 2 NYR 4
  10. 10 NSH 1 NYR 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Predators win 59% of them, Rangers 41%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+23.8%
Predators by 212.3%
Predators by 122.7%
Rangers by 122.8%
Rangers by 28.4%
Rangers by 3+10.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 3, without the luck Rangers by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators4632.74+0.26
Rangers2961.86+4.14

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 5:12 Tripping on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 19:14 Hooking on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P3 13:20 Cross checking on the Predators (Ozzy Wiesblatt): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NYR
P3 11:01 Holding the stick on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NSH
P3 9:49 Slashing on the Rangers (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NSH
P3 8:27 Hooking on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NSH

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 9:21 Mika Zibanejad scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% NYR –
2 P1 5:12 Tripping on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NSH –
3 P1 3:47 Michael Bunting’s wrist shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +3% NYR –
4 P1 3:44 Matthew Wood scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 19% chance +14% NSH –
5 P1 1:53 Vladislav Gavrikov scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 4% chance +17% NYR –
6 P2 19:14 Hooking on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYR –
7 P2 18:37 Alexis Lafrenière scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance +12% NYR –
8 P2 12:09 Artemi Panarin scored on a slap shot from 57 feetShooting · 3% chance +8% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 47% · Rangers 53%

Final margin
Rangers by 3
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Predators 59% · Rangers 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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