luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 11, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Wild, Nov 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Sharks beat the Wild 2–1, but the replays lean toward the Wild: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Sharks won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Sharks.

Final (OT)

San Jose Sharks 2
Minnesota Wild 1

November 11, 2025 · Grand Casino Arena

Luck index +63 Sharks very lucky · −63 Wild

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 4, Wild win 6.

  1. 1 SJS 4 MIN 1
  2. 2 SJS 6 MIN 4
  3. 3 SJS 4 MIN 3
  4. 4 SJS 3 MIN 2
  5. 5 SJS 1 MIN 2
  6. 6 SJS 3 MIN 4
  7. 7 SJS 0 MIN 2
  8. 8 SJS 2 MIN 5
  9. 9 SJS 1 MIN 4
  10. 10 SJS 0 MIN 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Sharks win 37% of them, Wild 63%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+9.3%
Sharks by 27.3%
Sharks by 120.7%
Wild by 123.0%
Wild by 213.0%
Wild by 3+26.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Sharks by 1, without the luck Wild by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks3011.88−0.88
Wild4512.59−1.59

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:55 Hooking on the Sharks (John Klingberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P1 12:17 Hooking on the Wild (Brock Faber): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 15:55 Tripping on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MIN
P2 10:13 Interference on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 8:11 Tripping on the Sharks (John Klingberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 2:51 Slashing on the Sharks (Alexander Wennberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P3 8:52 Slashing on the Wild (David Jiricek): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS

When it happened

Wild’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Wild were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 15:55 Tripping on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% MIN –
2 P2 14:58 Matt Boldy scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% MIN –
3 P2 2:51 Slashing on the Sharks (Alexander Wennberg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MIN –
4 P3 8:52 Slashing on the Wild (David Jiricek): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SJS –
5 P3 8:03 Will Smith scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 13% chance +29% SJS –
6 P3 4:45 William Eklund missed the net with a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 18% chance +7% MIN –
7 P3 1:44 Alexander Wennberg’s wrist shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance +5% MIN –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Sharks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% SJS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 36% · Wild 64%

Final margin
Sharks by 1
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Wild by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 37% · Wild 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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