luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 15, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Blackhawks, Nov 15, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Blackhawks beat the Maple Leafs 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blackhawks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

The biggest swing (P3, 4:25 left): Colton Dach scored on a tip from 28 feet, worth 37 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Chicago Blackhawks 3

November 15, 2025 · United Center

Luck index +49 Blackhawks lucky · −49 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Blackhawks win 5.

  1. 1 TOR 6 CHI 2
  2. 2 TOR 3 CHI 0
  3. 3 TOR 6 CHI 4
  4. 4 TOR 2 CHI 1
  5. 5 TOR 2 CHI 1
  6. 6 TOR 4 CHI 5
  7. 7 TOR 3 CHI 4
  8. 8 TOR 1 CHI 3
  9. 9 TOR 4 CHI 7
  10. 10 TOR 2 CHI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 49% of them, Blackhawks 51%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+19.9%
Maple Leafs by 29.6%
Maple Leafs by 119.5%
Blackhawks by 120.9%
Blackhawks by 211.0%
Blackhawks by 3+19.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Blackhawks by 1, without the luck Blackhawks by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4723.15−1.15
Blackhawks5233.02−0.02

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 17:07 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P2 10:23 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blackhawks (CHI): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 5:33 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CHI
P3 19:16 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P3 12:42 Delaying game puck over glass on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +7% CHI

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:55 Ryan Greene scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% CHI –
2 P1 0:48 Nicholas Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance +15% TOR –
3 P2 10:23 Morgan Rielly scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 11% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blackhawks (CHI): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +24% TOR –
4 P3 19:16 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TOR –
5 P3 14:48 Teuvo Teravainen scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 15% chance +24% CHI –
6 P3 12:42 Delaying game puck over glass on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% CHI –
7 P3 11:26 Frank Nazar missed the net with a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 17% chance +5% TOR –
8 P3 4:25 Colton Dach scored on a tip from 28 feetShooting · 3% chance +37% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 38% · Blackhawks 62%

Final margin
Blackhawks by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Blackhawks by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 49% · Blackhawks 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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