2025-26 regular season · November 16, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators vs Penguins, Nov 16, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Penguins beat the Predators 4–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 17:41 left): Parker Wotherspoon scored on a snap shot from 63 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Penguins.
Final
 Nashville Predators | 0 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Penguins lucky · −39 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 4, Penguins win 6.
- 1 NSH 6 PIT 3
- 2 NSH 3 PIT 1
- 3 NSH 5 PIT 4
- 4 NSH 2 PIT 1
- 5 NSH 2 PIT 3
- 6 NSH 3 PIT 4
- 7 NSH 2 PIT 4
- 8 NSH 1 PIT 3
- 9 NSH 1 PIT 4
- 10 NSH 0 PIT 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Predators win 39% of them, Penguins 61%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 9.0% |
| Predators by 2 | 7.4% |
| Predators by 1 | 22.4% |
| Penguins by 1 | 23.8% |
| Penguins by 2 | 13.8% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 23.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 36 | 0 | 1.78 | −1.78 |
 Penguins | 36 | 3 | 2.29 | +0.71 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 13:57 | Tripping on the Penguins (Ryan Graves): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% NSH |
| P2 9:03 | Slashing on the Penguins (Ryan Shea): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% NSH |
| P2 7:37 | Too many men on the ice on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% NSH |
| P3 8:00 | Interference on the Penguins (Parker Wotherspoon): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NSH |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:07 | Tommy Novak’s wrist shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +2% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 17:41 | Parker Wotherspoon scored on a snap shot from 63 feetShooting · 2% chance | +15% PIT | – |
| 3 | P1 11:55 | Kevin Hayes’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance | +2% NSH | – |
| 4 | P1 11:52 | Evgeni Malkin scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 5% chance | +13% PIT | – |
| 5 | P1 9:47 | Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 5% chance | +8% PIT | – |
| 6 | P2 13:57 | Tripping on the Penguins (Ryan Graves): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +1% NSH | – |
| 7 | P2 9:03 | Slashing on the Penguins (Ryan Shea): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +1% NSH | – |
| 8 | P2 7:37 | Too many men on the ice on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +1% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 17% · Penguins 83%
- Final margin
- Penguins by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.4 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penguins by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 39% · Penguins 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2025-26
- Islanders at Devils Nov 10, 2025 · NYI 3–2 OT · replay 20% for the winner
- Islanders at Golden Knights Nov 13, 2025 · NYI 4–3 OT · replay 34% for the winner
- Rangers at Lightning Nov 12, 2025 · NYR 7–3 · replay 37% for the winner
- Sharks at Wild Nov 11, 2025 · SJS 2–1 OT · replay 37% for the winner
- Flyers at Blues Nov 14, 2025 · PHI 6–5 SO · replay 40% for the winner
- Predators at Rangers Nov 10, 2025 · NYR 6–3 · replay 41% for the winner
- Capitals at Hurricanes Nov 11, 2025 · WSH 4–1 · replay 41% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Oilers Nov 10, 2025 · EDM 5–4 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Islanders at Mammoth Nov 14, 2025 · NYI 3–2 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Wild Nov 16, 2025 · MIN 3–2 OT · replay 44% for the winner
- Oilers at Flyers Nov 12, 2025 · EDM 2–1 OT · replay 47% for the winner
- Islanders at Avalanche Nov 16, 2025 · COL 4–1 · replay 47% for the winner