2025-26 regular season · November 15, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flyers at Stars, Nov 15, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Stars beat the Flyers 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 16:12 left): Lian Bichsel scored on a wrist shot from 56 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Stars.
Final
 Philadelphia Flyers | 1 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Stars | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Stars lucky · −26 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flyers win 3, Stars win 7.
- 1 PHI 5 DAL 2
- 2 PHI 4 DAL 3
- 3 PHI 4 DAL 3
- 4 PHI 3 DAL 4
- 5 PHI 3 DAL 5
- 6 PHI 1 DAL 4
- 7 PHI 2 DAL 5
- 8 PHI 3 DAL 7
- 9 PHI 0 DAL 5
- 10 PHI 1 DAL 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Flyers win 26% of them, Stars 74%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flyers by 3+ | 4.9% |
| Flyers by 2 | 5.1% |
| Flyers by 1 | 16.2% |
| Stars by 1 | 16.6% |
| Stars by 2 | 12.6% |
| Stars by 3+ | 44.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flyers | 31 | 1 | 1.91 | −0.91 |
 Stars | 47 | 5 | 3.82 | +1.18 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 3:13 | Interference on the Flyers (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P2 2:40 | High sticking on the Stars (Colin Blackwell): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PHI |
| P3 11:27 | High sticking on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% DAL |
When it happened
Stars’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:12 | Lian Bichsel scored on a wrist shot from 56 feetShooting · 1% chance | +16% DAL | – |
| 2 | P1 15:54 | Trevor Zegras’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance | +3% DAL | – |
| 3 | P1 12:01 | Jason Robertson’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +3% PHI | – |
| 4 | P1 3:13 | Interference on the Flyers (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DAL | – |
| 5 | P1 1:25 | Tyler Seguin missed the net with a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 19% chance | +3% PHI | – |
| 6 | P2 13:02 | Trevor Zegras missed the net with a slap shot from 19 feetShooting · 21% chance | +4% DAL | – |
| 7 | P2 8:21 | Jason Robertson scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 4% chance | +14% DAL | – |
| 8 | P2 2:58 | Jason Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 9% chance | +6% DAL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flyers 10% · Stars 90%
- Final margin
- Stars by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Stars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stars by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Flyers 26% · Stars 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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