luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 14, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Hurricanes, Nov 14, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Canucks 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Canucks had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (OT): the Hurricanes won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final (OT)

Vancouver Canucks 3
Carolina Hurricanes 4

November 14, 2025 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +21 Hurricanes about even · −21 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 2, Hurricanes win 8.

  1. 1 VAN 2 CAR 1
  2. 2 VAN 4 CAR 3
  3. 3 VAN 0 CAR 1
  4. 4 VAN 2 CAR 3
  5. 5 VAN 1 CAR 3
  6. 6 VAN 0 CAR 3
  7. 7 VAN 0 CAR 3
  8. 8 VAN 0 CAR 4
  9. 9 VAN 1 CAR 5
  10. 10 VAN 2 CAR 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Canucks win 21% of them, Hurricanes 79%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+2.3%
Canucks by 23.2%
Canucks by 115.1%
Hurricanes by 116.3%
Hurricanes by 213.2%
Hurricanes by 3+49.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Hurricanes by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks2231.16+1.84
Hurricanes5733.47−0.47

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:51 Cross checking on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 12:17 High sticking on the Canucks (Evander Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CAR
P2 17:17 Slashing on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P2 12:46 Hooking on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:15 Max Sasson scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% VAN –
2 P1 15:40 Andrei Svechnikov scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% CAR –
3 P1 14:46 Andrei Svechnikov scored on a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% CAR –
4 P1 10:46 Elias Pettersson scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% VAN –
5 P2 17:17 Slashing on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VAN –
6 P2 16:47 Conor Garland scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 12% chance +17% VAN –
7 P3 13:34 Taylor Hall scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 10% chance +27% CAR –
8 OT The Hurricanes won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 12% · Hurricanes 88%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 21% · Hurricanes 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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