luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 15, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Golden Knights at Blues, Nov 15, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Golden Knights beat the Blues 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 7:08 left): Brandon Saad scored on a wrist shot from 24 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

Final

Vegas Golden Knights 4
St. Louis Blues 1

November 15, 2025 · Enterprise Center

Luck index +28 Golden Knights lucky · −28 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Golden Knights win 7, Blues win 3.

  1. 1 VGK 6 STL 1
  2. 2 VGK 5 STL 1
  3. 3 VGK 3 STL 0
  4. 4 VGK 3 STL 0
  5. 5 VGK 4 STL 2
  6. 6 VGK 2 STL 1
  7. 7 VGK 3 STL 2
  8. 8 VGK 3 STL 4
  9. 9 VGK 1 STL 2
  10. 10 VGK 2 STL 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Golden Knights win 72% of them, Blues 28%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Golden Knights by 3+39.8%
Golden Knights by 212.9%
Golden Knights by 119.1%
Blues by 117.5%
Blues by 25.4%
Blues by 3+5.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Golden Knights: the final margin was Golden Knights by 3, without the luck Golden Knights by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Golden Knights5543.24+0.76
Blues3411.67−0.67

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 5:35 Tripping on the Blues (Nick Bjugstad): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P2 2:58 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Nathan Walker): 4 minutes on the power play +2% VGK
P3 18:28 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Brandon Saad): 2 minutes on the power play +1% STL
P3 11:25 Tripping on the Golden Knights (Brayden McNabb): 2 minutes on the power play +1% STL

When it happened

Blues’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blues were ahead in it, below while the Golden Knights were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:51 Pius Suter’s wrist shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance +2% VGK –
2 P1 9:56 Ivan Barbashev missed the net with a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 18% chance +3% STL –
3 P1 8:29 Tomas Hertl bat, 7 ft: above crossbar (14% chance)Shooting +3% STL –
4 P1 7:08 Brandon Saad scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 10% chance +16% VGK –
5 P1 5:35 Tripping on the Blues (Nick Bjugstad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VGK –
6 P1 5:02 Braeden Bowman scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% VGK –
7 P2 19:24 Noah Hanifin scored on a slap shot from 63 feetShooting · 2% chance +10% VGK –
8 P2 2:58 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Nathan Walker): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +2% VGK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Golden Knights 89% · Blues 11%

Final margin
Golden Knights by 3
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Golden Knights
Luck-adjusted margin
Golden Knights by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Golden Knights 72% · Blues 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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