Kraken lucky 3 
Penguins unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 26% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Nov 17, 2025 – Nov 23, 2025
NHL week 7: who deserved to win
8 of 52 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Kraken beat the Penguins 3–2 (OT) in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 52 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Kraken lucky 3 Penguins unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 26% of replays 
Lightning lucky 5 
Capitals unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Lightning win 30% of replays 
Stars lucky 4 
Canucks unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Stars win 32% of replays 
Hurricanes unlucky 3 
Wild lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Wild win 34% of replays 
Oilers lucky 6 
Panthers unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Oilers win 37% of replays 
Bruins lucky 2 
Kings unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 38% of replays Wild lucky 3 
Jets unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Wild win 39% of replays 
Blue Jackets unlucky 3 
Red Wings lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 40% of replays 
Mammoth 2 
Sharks 3 Coin flip · Sharks win 40% of replays Bruins 1 Sharks 3 Coin flip · Sharks win 41% of replays 
Blues 2 
Maple Leafs 3 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 41% of replays Hurricanes 4 Jets 3 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 42% of replays 
Islanders 3 Stars 2 Coin flip · Islanders win 43% of replays Oilers 4 Capitals 7 Coin flip · Capitals win 44% of replays Kings 3 Sharks 4 Coin flip · Sharks win 44% of replays 
Flames 5 Canucks 2 Coin flip · Flames win 45% of replays 
Golden Knights 3 
Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 47% of replays Kings 1 Capitals 2 Coin flip · Capitals win 47% of replays Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 48% of replays 
Canadiens 3 Blue Jackets 4 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 48% of replays Blues 2 Islanders 1 Coin flip · Blues win 48% of replays 
Avalanche 3 
Predators 0 Coin flip · Avalanche win 50% of replays Hurricanes 1 
Sabres 4 Coin flip · Sabres win 51% of replays Bruins 3 Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 51% of replays Golden Knights 4 Mammoth 1 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 53% of replays Kraken 3 
Blackhawks 2 Coin flip · Kraken win 53% of replays Avalanche 1 Blackhawks 0 Coin flip · Avalanche win 53% of replays Mammoth 2 Ducks 3 Coin flip · Ducks win 55% of replays Flames 6 Sabres 2 Coin flip · Flames win 56% of replays Stars 2 Flames 3 Coin flip · Flames win 56% of replays Flames 2 Blackhawks 5 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 57% of replays 
Rangers 2 Mammoth 3 Coin flip · Mammoth win 57% of replays Blues 2 
Flyers 3 Coin flip · Flyers win 58% of replays 
Devils 1 Lightning 5 Coin flip · Lightning win 58% of replays Rangers 2 Golden Knights 3 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 59% of replays Devils 3 Flyers 6 Coin flip · Flyers win 59% of replays Islanders 5 Red Wings 0 Coin flip · Islanders win 60% of replays Blue Jackets 2 Jets 5 Replays agree · Jets win 60% of replays Kraken 2 Red Wings 4 Replays agree · Red Wings win 61% of replays Capitals 8 Canadiens 4 Replays agree · Capitals win 62% of replays Devils 0 Panthers 1 Replays agree · Panthers win 63% of replays Wild 5 Penguins 0 Replays agree · Wild win 65% of replays Kraken 0 Islanders 1 Replays agree · Islanders win 66% of replays 
Senators 3 Sharks 2 Replays agree · Senators win 67% of replays Canucks 5 Panthers 8 Replays agree · Panthers win 68% of replays Blackhawks 3 Sabres 9 Replays agree · Sabres win 68% of replays Oilers 1 Lightning 2 Replays agree · Lightning win 69% of replays Senators 3 Ducks 2 Replays agree · Senators win 69% of replays Hurricanes 3 Bruins 1 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 70% of replays Oilers 1 Sabres 5 Replays agree · Sabres win 71% of replays Rangers 3 Avalanche 6 Replays agree · Avalanche win 74% of replays Maple Leafs 2 Canadiens 5 Replays agree · Canadiens win 80% of replays Week 7 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kraken | W 3–2 OT @ Penguins Nov 22, 2025 | 26% | +74 |
| 2 | Lightning | W 5–3 @ Capitals Nov 22, 2025 | 30% | +70 |
| 3 | Stars | W 4–2 @ Canucks Nov 20, 2025 | 32% | +68 |
| 4 | Wild | W 4–3 SO vs Hurricanes Nov 19, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 5 | Oilers | W 6–3 @ Panthers Nov 22, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 6 | Bruins | W 2–1 OT @ Kings Nov 21, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 7 | Wild | W 3–0 @ Jets Nov 23, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 8 | Red Wings | W 4–3 OT vs Blue Jackets Nov 22, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 9 | Sharks | W 3–2 OT vs Mammoth Nov 18, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 10 | Sharks | W 3–1 vs Bruins Nov 23, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 11 | Maple Leafs | W 3–2 OT vs Blues Nov 18, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 12 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 @ Jets Nov 21, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 13 | Islanders | W 3–2 @ Stars Nov 18, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 14 | Capitals | W 7–4 vs Oilers Nov 19, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 15 | Sharks | W 4–3 SO vs Kings Nov 20, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 16 | Flames | W 5–2 @ Canucks Nov 23, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 17 | Ducks | W 4–3 OT vs Golden Knights Nov 22, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 18 | Capitals | W 2–1 vs Kings Nov 17, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 19 | Blue Jackets | W 3–2 OT @ Maple Leafs Nov 20, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 20 | Blue Jackets | W 4–3 SO vs Canadiens Nov 17, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 21 | Blues | W 2–1 @ Islanders Nov 22, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 22 | Avalanche | W 3–0 @ Predators Nov 22, 2025 | 50% | +51 |
| 23 | Sabres | W 4–1 vs Hurricanes Nov 23, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 24 | Ducks | W 4–3 vs Bruins Nov 19, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 25 | Golden Knights | W 4–1 @ Mammoth Nov 20, 2025 | 53% | +48 |
| 26 | Kraken | W 3–2 @ Blackhawks Nov 20, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 27 | Avalanche | W 1–0 @ Blackhawks Nov 23, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 28 | Ducks | W 3–2 OT vs Mammoth Nov 17, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 29 | Flames | W 6–2 @ Sabres Nov 19, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 30 | Flames | W 3–2 SO vs Stars Nov 22, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 31 | Blackhawks | W 5–2 vs Flames Nov 18, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 32 | Mammoth | W 3–2 vs Rangers Nov 22, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 33 | Flyers | W 3–2 OT vs Blues Nov 20, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 34 | Lightning | W 5–1 vs Devils Nov 18, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 35 | Golden Knights | W 3–2 vs Rangers Nov 18, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 36 | Flyers | W 6–3 vs Devils Nov 22, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 37 | Islanders | W 5–0 @ Red Wings Nov 20, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 38 | Jets | W 5–2 vs Blue Jackets Nov 18, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 39 | Red Wings | W 4–2 vs Kraken Nov 18, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 40 | Capitals | W 8–4 @ Canadiens Nov 20, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 41 | Panthers | W 1–0 vs Devils Nov 20, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 42 | Wild | W 5–0 @ Penguins Nov 21, 2025 | 65% | +35 |
| 43 | Islanders | W 1–0 SO vs Kraken Nov 23, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 44 | Senators | W 3–2 @ Sharks Nov 22, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 45 | Panthers | W 8–5 vs Canucks Nov 17, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 46 | Sabres | W 9–3 vs Blackhawks Nov 21, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 47 | Lightning | W 2–1 OT vs Oilers Nov 20, 2025 | 69% | +31 |
| 48 | Senators | W 3–2 @ Ducks Nov 20, 2025 | 69% | +31 |
| 49 | Hurricanes | W 3–1 @ Bruins Nov 17, 2025 | 70% | +30 |
| 50 | Sabres | W 5–1 vs Oilers Nov 17, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 51 | Avalanche | W 6–3 vs Rangers Nov 20, 2025 | 74% | +26 |
| 52 | Canadiens | W 5–2 vs Maple Leafs Nov 22, 2025 | 80% | +20 |
| 53 | Maple Leafs | L 2–5 @ Canadiens Nov 22, 2025 | 20% | −20 |
| 54 | Rangers | L 3–6 @ Avalanche Nov 20, 2025 | 26% | −26 |
| 55 | Oilers | L 1–5 @ Sabres Nov 17, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 56 | Bruins | L 1–3 vs Hurricanes Nov 17, 2025 | 30% | −30 |
| 57 | Ducks | L 2–3 vs Senators Nov 20, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 58 | Oilers | L 1–2 OT @ Lightning Nov 20, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 59 | Blackhawks | L 3–9 @ Sabres Nov 21, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 60 | Canucks | L 5–8 @ Panthers Nov 17, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 61 | Sharks | L 2–3 vs Senators Nov 22, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 62 | Kraken | L 0–1 SO @ Islanders Nov 23, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 63 | Penguins | L 0–5 vs Wild Nov 21, 2025 | 35% | −35 |
| 64 | Devils | L 0–1 @ Panthers Nov 20, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 65 | Canadiens | L 4–8 vs Capitals Nov 20, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 66 | Kraken | L 2–4 @ Red Wings Nov 18, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 67 | Blue Jackets | L 2–5 @ Jets Nov 18, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 68 | Red Wings | L 0–5 vs Islanders Nov 20, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 69 | Devils | L 3–6 @ Flyers Nov 22, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 70 | Rangers | L 2–3 @ Golden Knights Nov 18, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 71 | Devils | L 1–5 @ Lightning Nov 18, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 72 | Blues | L 2–3 OT @ Flyers Nov 20, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 73 | Rangers | L 2–3 @ Mammoth Nov 22, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 74 | Flames | L 2–5 @ Blackhawks Nov 18, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 75 | Stars | L 2–3 SO @ Flames Nov 22, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 76 | Sabres | L 2–6 vs Flames Nov 19, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 77 | Mammoth | L 2–3 OT @ Ducks Nov 17, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 78 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 vs Kraken Nov 20, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 79 | Blackhawks | L 0–1 vs Avalanche Nov 23, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 80 | Mammoth | L 1–4 vs Golden Knights Nov 20, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 81 | Bruins | L 3–4 @ Ducks Nov 19, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 82 | Hurricanes | L 1–4 @ Sabres Nov 23, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 83 | Predators | L 0–3 vs Avalanche Nov 22, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 84 | Islanders | L 1–2 vs Blues Nov 22, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 85 | Canadiens | L 3–4 SO @ Blue Jackets Nov 17, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 86 | Maple Leafs | L 2–3 OT vs Blue Jackets Nov 20, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 87 | Kings | L 1–2 @ Capitals Nov 17, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 88 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 OT @ Ducks Nov 22, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 89 | Canucks | L 2–5 vs Flames Nov 23, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 90 | Kings | L 3–4 SO @ Sharks Nov 20, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 91 | Oilers | L 4–7 @ Capitals Nov 19, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 92 | Stars | L 2–3 vs Islanders Nov 18, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 93 | Jets | L 3–4 vs Hurricanes Nov 21, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 94 | Blues | L 2–3 OT @ Maple Leafs Nov 18, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 95 | Bruins | L 1–3 @ Sharks Nov 23, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 96 | Mammoth | L 2–3 OT @ Sharks Nov 18, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 97 | Blue Jackets | L 3–4 OT @ Red Wings Nov 22, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 98 | Jets | L 0–3 vs Wild Nov 23, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 99 | Kings | L 1–2 OT vs Bruins Nov 21, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 100 | Panthers | L 3–6 vs Oilers Nov 22, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 101 | Hurricanes | L 3–4 SO @ Wild Nov 19, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 102 | Canucks | L 2–4 vs Stars Nov 20, 2025 | 68% | −68 |
| 103 | Capitals | L 3–5 vs Lightning Nov 22, 2025 | 70% | −70 |
| 104 | Penguins | L 2–3 OT vs Kraken Nov 22, 2025 | 74% | −74 |