luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 20, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Avalanche, Nov 20, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Rangers 6–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Rangers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P3, 9:12 left): Nathan MacKinnon scored on a backhand shot from 17 feet, worth 30 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

New York Rangers 3
Colorado Avalanche 6

November 20, 2025 · Ball Arena

Luck index +26 Avalanche lucky · −26 Rangers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 3, Avalanche win 7.

  1. 1 NYR 4 COL 2
  2. 2 NYR 2 COL 1
  3. 3 NYR 5 COL 4
  4. 4 NYR 1 COL 2
  5. 5 NYR 1 COL 2
  6. 6 NYR 0 COL 2
  7. 7 NYR 1 COL 4
  8. 8 NYR 0 COL 3
  9. 9 NYR 0 COL 4
  10. 10 NYR 1 COL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Rangers win 26% of them, Avalanche 74%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+4.1%
Rangers by 24.5%
Rangers by 117.9%
Avalanche by 119.2%
Avalanche by 213.3%
Avalanche by 3+41.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Avalanche: the final margin was Avalanche by 3, without the luck Avalanche by 2.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers3031.43+1.57
Avalanche5243.04+0.96

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:41 Interference on the Avalanche (Samuel Girard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P1 11:51 Interference on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 5:58 Interference on the Rangers (Sam Carrick): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 10:04 Holding on the Rangers (Conor Sheary): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P3 19:09 Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play +6% COL
P3 15:10 Holding on the Rangers (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power play +5% COL
P3 10:33 Tripping on the Avalanche (Jack Drury): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR
P3 3:54 Holding on the Rangers (Jonny Brodzinski): 2 minutes on the power play +6% COL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:34 J.T. Miller scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% NYR –
2 P1 0:27 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance +17% COL –
3 P2 16:02 Adam Edstrom scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% NYR –
4 P2 2:45 Cale Makar scored on a wraparound from 6 feetShooting · 3% chance +24% COL –
5 P3 19:09 Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% COL –
6 P3 17:24 Brock Nelson scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 12% chance +23% COL –
7 P3 9:42 J.T. Miller scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 10% chance +29% NYR –
8 P3 9:12 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a backhand shot from 17 feetShooting · 7% chance +30% COL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 4% · Avalanche 96%

Final margin
Avalanche by 3
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Avalanche
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 26% · Avalanche 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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