2025-26 regular season · November 19, 2025 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Wild, Nov 19, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Wild beat the Hurricanes 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Hurricanes: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Wild.
The biggest swing (SO): the Wild won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Wild.
Final (SO)
 Carolina Hurricanes | 3 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Wild | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Wild very lucky · −66 Hurricanes
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 7, Wild win 3.
- 1 CAR 6 MIN 1
- 2 CAR 4 MIN 1
- 3 CAR 3 MIN 0
- 4 CAR 2 MIN 0
- 5 CAR 7 MIN 5
- 6 CAR 5 MIN 4
- 7 CAR 3 MIN 2
- 8 CAR 2 MIN 3
- 9 CAR 4 MIN 5
- 10 CAR 2 MIN 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hurricanes win 66% of them, Wild 34%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 30.4% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 13.6% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 21.7% |
| Wild by 1 | 21.2% |
| Wild by 2 | 6.3% |
| Wild by 3+ | 6.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 64 | 3 | 2.93 | +0.07 |
 Wild | 26 | 3 | 1.39 | +1.61 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:11 | Tripping on the Wild (Zeev Buium): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CAR |
| P1 0:07 | Slashing on the Wild (Mats Zuccarello): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CAR |
| P2 13:02 | Interference on the Hurricanes (Mike Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
When it happened
Wild’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:06 | Brock Faber scored on a tip from 17 feetShooting · 7% chance | +14% MIN | – |
| 2 | P1 10:11 | Tripping on the Wild (Zeev Buium): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% CAR | – |
| 3 | P1 8:14 | Matt Boldy scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% MIN | – |
| 4 | P2 5:57 | Jackson Blake scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 6% chance | +14% CAR | – |
| 5 | P3 19:45 | Mats Zuccarello scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 13% chance | +13% MIN | – |
| 6 | P3 13:26 | Sebastian Aho scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 6% chance | +13% CAR | – |
| 7 | P3 1:06 | Jackson Blake scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance | +40% CAR | – |
| 8 | SO | The Wild won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +51% MIN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 78% · Wild 22%
- Final margin
- Wild by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for the Wild
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 66% · Wild 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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