luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 18, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blues at Maple Leafs, Nov 18, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Blues 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The biggest swing (OT): the Maple Leafs won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final (OT)

St. Louis Blues 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 3

November 18, 2025 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +59 Maple Leafs lucky · −59 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blues win 6, Maple Leafs win 4.

  1. 1 STL 5 TOR 1
  2. 2 STL 3 TOR 0
  3. 3 STL 4 TOR 1
  4. 4 STL 2 TOR 0
  5. 5 STL 3 TOR 2
  6. 6 STL 3 TOR 2
  7. 7 STL 1 TOR 2
  8. 8 STL 1 TOR 2
  9. 9 STL 2 TOR 4
  10. 10 STL 0 TOR 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Blues win 59% of them, Maple Leafs 41%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blues by 3+24.7%
Blues by 212.5%
Blues by 121.6%
Maple Leafs by 122.2%
Maple Leafs by 28.1%
Maple Leafs by 3+10.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 1, without the luck Blues by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blues4722.65−0.65
Maple Leafs3921.84+0.16

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:35 Holding on the Blues (Pavel Buchnevich): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 3:23 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Tyler Tucker): 4 minutes on the power play +8% TOR
P2 7:54 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P2 4:35 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +5% STL
P3 16:50 Delaying game puck over glass on the Maple Leafs (Matias Maccelli): 2 minutes on the power play +6% STL

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Blues were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:10 Nathan Walker scored on a shot from 10 feetShooting · 22% chance +13% STL –
2 P1 14:24 Jake McCabe scored on a wrist shot from 59 feetShooting · 1% chance +16% TOR –
3 P1 3:23 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Tyler Tucker): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% TOR –
4 P2 10:28 Steven Lorentz scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 9% chance +19% TOR –
5 P2 6:42 Dalibor Dvorsky scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 9% chance +20% STL –
6 P2 4:35 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% STL –
7 P3 16:50 Delaying game puck over glass on the Maple Leafs (Matias Maccelli): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% STL –
8 OT The Maple Leafs won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blues 65% · Maple Leafs 35%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 1
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Blues by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Blues 59% · Maple Leafs 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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