luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 21, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Hurricanes at Jets, Nov 21, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Jets 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Hurricanes win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 29 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

The biggest swing (P2, 16:52 left): Jordan Staal scored on a tip from 23 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 4
Winnipeg Jets 3

November 21, 2025 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +58 Hurricanes lucky · −58 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hurricanes win 4, Jets win 6.

  1. 1 CAR 3 WPG 0
  2. 2 CAR 3 WPG 1
  3. 3 CAR 3 WPG 2
  4. 4 CAR 2 WPG 1
  5. 5 CAR 1 WPG 2
  6. 6 CAR 2 WPG 3
  7. 7 CAR 0 WPG 2
  8. 8 CAR 3 WPG 5
  9. 9 CAR 1 WPG 4
  10. 10 CAR 0 WPG 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Hurricanes win 42% of them, Jets 58%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hurricanes by 3+11.5%
Hurricanes by 28.6%
Hurricanes by 121.5%
Jets by 123.9%
Jets by 212.3%
Jets by 3+22.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Hurricanes4341.98+2.02
Jets4032.49+0.51

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:10 Tripping on the Jets (Gabriel Vilardi): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 11:03 Hooking on the Hurricanes (Logan Stankoven): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 14:18 Hooking on the Hurricanes (Eric Robinson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P2 10:41 Cross checking on the Jets (Logan Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P3 17:31 Slashing on the Jets (Alex Iafallo): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P3 0:52 High sticking on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WPG

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Hurricanes were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:44 Jordan Staal scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% CAR –
2 P1 16:15 Josh Morrissey scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% WPG –
3 P1 10:32 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 17% chance +14% WPG –
4 P2 16:52 Jordan Staal scored on a tip from 23 feetShooting · 6% chance +18% CAR –
5 P2 13:29 Seth Jarvis scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance +18% CAR –
6 P3 16:41 Andrei Svechnikov scored on a slap shot from 24 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% CAR –
7 P3 15:47 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% WPG –
8 P3 6:37 Mark Scheifele’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +8% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hurricanes 61% · Jets 39%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Hurricanes 42% · Jets 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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