luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 22, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Penguins, Nov 22, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Penguins 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Kraken won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final (OT)

Seattle Kraken 3
Pittsburgh Penguins 2

November 22, 2025 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +74 Kraken very lucky · −74 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 3, Penguins win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 3 PIT 1
  2. 2 SEA 5 PIT 4
  3. 3 SEA 3 PIT 2
  4. 4 SEA 4 PIT 5
  5. 5 SEA 3 PIT 4
  6. 6 SEA 0 PIT 2
  7. 7 SEA 1 PIT 4
  8. 8 SEA 1 PIT 4
  9. 9 SEA 1 PIT 5
  10. 10 SEA 2 PIT 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kraken win 26% of them, Penguins 74%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+4.8%
Kraken by 25.4%
Kraken by 116.2%
Penguins by 118.2%
Penguins by 212.1%
Penguins by 3+43.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 1, without the luck Penguins by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken3421.85+0.15
Penguins4923.85−1.85

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:11 Interference on the Penguins (Tommy Novak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 12:22 Holding on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 8:19 Interference on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 2:38 Tripping on the Kraken (Jamie Oleksiak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 3:11 Holding on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play +6% SEA
P3 15:51 Hooking on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 18:36 Mason Marchment scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 5% chance +18% SEA –
2 P2 3:44 Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 16% chance +20% PIT –
3 P3 15:51 Hooking on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% PIT –
4 P3 14:06 Ben Kindel’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 45% chance +13% SEA –
5 P3 14:04 Evgeni Malkin scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance +26% PIT –
6 P3 7:24 Matty Beniers scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 8% chance +32% SEA –
7 P3 2:49 Blake Lizotte’s wrist shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +7% SEA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Kraken won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 19% · Penguins 81%

Final margin
Kraken by 1
Luck in goals
2.5 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 26% · Penguins 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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