2025-26 regular season · November 18, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flames at Blackhawks, Nov 18, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Blackhawks beat the Flames 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blackhawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 34 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
The biggest swing (P3, 16:58 left): Rasmus Andersson scored on a wrist shot from 31 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Flames.
Final
 Calgary Flames | 2 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Blackhawks | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Blackhawks lucky · −43 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flames win 4, Blackhawks win 6.
- 1 CGY 3 CHI 0
- 2 CGY 3 CHI 1
- 3 CGY 2 CHI 1
- 4 CGY 2 CHI 1
- 5 CGY 3 CHI 4
- 6 CGY 1 CHI 2
- 7 CGY 0 CHI 1
- 8 CGY 1 CHI 3
- 9 CGY 1 CHI 4
- 10 CGY 0 CHI 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Flames win 43% of them, Blackhawks 57%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flames by 3+ | 9.0% |
| Flames by 2 | 8.5% |
| Flames by 1 | 25.1% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 27.0% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 12.3% |
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 18.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flames | 35 | 2 | 1.77 | +0.23 |
 Blackhawks | 33 | 4 | 1.87 | +2.13 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 9:18 | Slashing on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 7:15 | Interference on the Flames (Yegor Sharangovich): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P1 4:55 | Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P2 10:19 | Tripping on the Flames (Jake Bean): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P2 8:43 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P2 0:37 | Cross checking on the Blackhawks (Connor Murphy): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% CGY |
| P3 11:10 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blackhawks (Wyatt Kaiser): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CGY |
| P3 5:14 | Holding on the Blackhawks (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% CGY |
| P3 0:00 | Roughing on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% CHI |
When it happened
Blackhawks’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 4:55 | Ryan Donato scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 13% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +19% CHI | – |
| 2 | P2 8:43 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CHI | – |
| 3 | P2 4:49 | Connor Bedard scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance | +13% CHI | – |
| 4 | P2 0:28 | Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 14% chance | +13% CGY | – |
| 5 | P3 16:58 | Rasmus Andersson scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 4% chance | +25% CGY | – |
| 6 | P3 15:03 | Connor Bedard scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 10% chance | +25% CHI | – |
| 7 | P3 11:10 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blackhawks (Wyatt Kaiser): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CGY | – |
| 8 | P3 6:56 | Oliver Moore scored on a poke shot from 5 feetShooting · 12% chance | +10% CHI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flames 18% · Blackhawks 82%
- Final margin
- Blackhawks by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for the Blackhawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blackhawks by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Flames 43% · Blackhawks 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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