luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 20, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Ducks, Nov 20, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Ducks 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 0:58 left): Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 7 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Senators. The biggest single swing (P3, 1:58 left): Drake Batherson scored on a tip from 10 feet.

Final

Ottawa Senators 3
Anaheim Ducks 2

November 20, 2025 · Honda Center

Luck index +31 Senators lucky · −31 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 7, Ducks win 3.

  1. 1 OTT 5 ANA 0
  2. 2 OTT 4 ANA 0
  3. 3 OTT 5 ANA 2
  4. 4 OTT 3 ANA 0
  5. 5 OTT 2 ANA 0
  6. 6 OTT 4 ANA 3
  7. 7 OTT 3 ANA 2
  8. 8 OTT 3 ANA 4
  9. 9 OTT 2 ANA 3
  10. 10 OTT 2 ANA 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Senators win 69% of them, Ducks 31%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+38.1%
Senators by 212.1%
Senators by 118.9%
Ducks by 118.2%
Ducks by 26.5%
Ducks by 3+6.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Senators by 1, without the luck Senators by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators3933.35−0.35
Ducks4322.37−0.37

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:15 Holding on the Senators (Jake Sanderson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 7:13 Tripping on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 15:58 High sticking on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 11:05 Tripping on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 2:52 Interference on the Ducks (Mason McTavish): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 3:21 Nick Cousins scored on a slap shot from 31 feetShooting · 12% chance +16% OTT –
2 P2 6:52 Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance +19% ANA –
3 P2 5:26 Mason McTavish scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 11% chance +20% ANA –
4 P2 0:58 The game turned hereShane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance +21% OTT –
5 P3 5:21 Shane Pinto’s slap shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +6% ANA –
6 P3 1:58 Drake Batherson scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +39% OTT –
7 P3 0:44 Beckett Sennecke missed the net with a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 24% chance +11% OTT –
8 P3 0:23 Troy Terry missed the net with a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 18% chance +8% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 86% · Ducks 14%

Final margin
Senators by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Senators 69% · Ducks 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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