Bruins lucky 3 
Islanders unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 27% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Nov 24, 2025 – Nov 30, 2025
NHL week 8: who deserved to win
16 of 53 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Bruins beat the Islanders 3–1 in a game they win 27% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 53 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Bruins lucky 3 Islanders unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 27% of replays 
Senators lucky 4 
Golden Knights unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Senators win 29% of replays 
Capitals lucky 4 Islanders unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Capitals win 29% of replays 
Wild lucky 4 
Blackhawks unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Wild win 29% of replays 
Red Wings unlucky 3 
Devils lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Devils win 30% of replays Devils lucky 5 
Sabres unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Devils win 30% of replays 
Flames lucky 5 
Panthers unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Flames win 31% of replays 
Flyers lucky 4 Islanders unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 33% of replays 
Rangers lucky 4 
Hurricanes unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Rangers win 34% of replays 
Maple Leafs lucky 2 
Blue Jackets unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Maple Leafs win 34% of replays 
Canadiens lucky 4 
Mammoth unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 37% of replays 
Canucks unlucky 2 
Sharks lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 37% of replays Flyers lucky 4 Panthers unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 38% of replays Sabres unlucky 2 
Penguins lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Penguins win 39% of replays Golden Knights unlucky 1 Mammoth lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Mammoth win 39% of replays Penguins lucky 4 Blue Jackets unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Penguins win 40% of replays Flyers 5 Devils 3 Coin flip · Flyers win 41% of replays Canadiens 4 Golden Knights 1 Coin flip · Canadiens win 41% of replays Senators 1 
Kings 2 Coin flip · Kings win 42% of replays Maple Leafs 7 Penguins 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 43% of replays 
Oilers 4 
Kraken 0 Coin flip · Oilers win 43% of replays Flames 1 
Lightning 5 Coin flip · Lightning win 44% of replays Canucks 5 
Ducks 4 Coin flip · Canucks win 44% of replays Lightning 6 Red Wings 3 Coin flip · Lightning win 45% of replays Red Wings 2 Bruins 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 45% of replays 
Blues 2 Devils 3 Coin flip · Devils win 47% of replays 
Jets 3 Capitals 4 Coin flip · Capitals win 47% of replays 
Predators 4 Blackhawks 3 Coin flip · Predators win 47% of replays Blues 2 Rangers 3 Coin flip · Rangers win 49% of replays Predators 6 Red Wings 3 Coin flip · Predators win 51% of replays Kings 4 Ducks 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 52% of replays 
Stars 3 Kraken 2 Coin flip · Stars win 53% of replays Canucks 1 Kings 2 Coin flip · Kings win 53% of replays Panthers 8 Predators 3 Coin flip · Panthers win 53% of replays Sabres 3 Wild 2 Coin flip · Sabres win 54% of replays Ducks 3 Blackhawks 5 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 54% of replays 
Avalanche 2 Wild 3 Coin flip · Wild win 54% of replays Flames 0 Hurricanes 1 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 55% of replays Senators 1 Stars 6 Coin flip · Stars win 56% of replays Mammoth 0 Blues 1 Coin flip · Blues win 56% of replays Maple Leafs 2 Capitals 4 Coin flip · Capitals win 58% of replays Mammoth 3 Stars 4 Coin flip · Stars win 58% of replays Senators 3 Blues 4 Coin flip · Blues win 59% of replays Blue Jackets 1 Capitals 5 Replays agree · Capitals win 61% of replays Jets 5 Predators 2 Replays agree · Jets win 64% of replays Sharks 3 Golden Knights 4 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 67% of replays Flyers 0 Lightning 3 Replays agree · Lightning win 68% of replays Rangers 6 Bruins 2 Replays agree · Rangers win 69% of replays Jets 1 Hurricanes 5 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 71% of replays Sharks 0 Avalanche 6 Replays agree · Avalanche win 75% of replays Stars 8 Oilers 3 Replays agree · Stars win 75% of replays Canadiens 2 Avalanche 7 Replays agree · Avalanche win 75% of replays Lightning 4 Rangers 1 Replays agree · Lightning win 76% of replays Week 8 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruins | W 3–1 @ Islanders Nov 26, 2025 | 27% | +73 |
| 2 | Senators | W 4–3 SO @ Golden Knights Nov 26, 2025 | 29% | +71 |
| 3 | Capitals | W 4–1 @ Islanders Nov 30, 2025 | 29% | +71 |
| 4 | Wild | W 4–3 OT @ Blackhawks Nov 26, 2025 | 29% | +71 |
| 5 | Devils | W 4–3 vs Red Wings Nov 24, 2025 | 30% | +70 |
| 6 | Devils | W 5–0 @ Sabres Nov 28, 2025 | 30% | +70 |
| 7 | Flames | W 5–3 @ Panthers Nov 28, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 8 | Flyers | W 4–3 SO @ Islanders Nov 28, 2025 | 33% | +67 |
| 9 | Rangers | W 4–2 @ Hurricanes Nov 26, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 10 | Maple Leafs | W 2–1 OT @ Blue Jackets Nov 26, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 11 | Canadiens | W 4–3 @ Mammoth Nov 26, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 12 | Sharks | W 3–2 vs Canucks Nov 28, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 13 | Flyers | W 4–2 @ Panthers Nov 26, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 14 | Penguins | W 4–2 vs Sabres Nov 26, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 15 | Mammoth | W 5–1 vs Golden Knights Nov 24, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 16 | Penguins | W 4–3 OT @ Blue Jackets Nov 28, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 17 | Flyers | W 5–3 @ Devils Nov 29, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 18 | Canadiens | W 4–1 @ Golden Knights Nov 28, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 19 | Kings | W 2–1 vs Senators Nov 24, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 20 | Maple Leafs | W 7–2 @ Penguins Nov 29, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 21 | Oilers | W 4–0 @ Kraken Nov 29, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 22 | Lightning | W 5–1 vs Flames Nov 26, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 23 | Canucks | W 5–4 @ Ducks Nov 26, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 24 | Lightning | W 6–3 @ Red Wings Nov 28, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 25 | Bruins | W 3–2 SO vs Red Wings Nov 29, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 26 | Devils | W 3–2 OT vs Blues Nov 26, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 27 | Capitals | W 4–3 vs Jets Nov 26, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 28 | Predators | W 4–3 @ Blackhawks Nov 28, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 29 | Rangers | W 3–2 vs Blues Nov 24, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 30 | Predators | W 6–3 @ Red Wings Nov 26, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 31 | Ducks | W 5–4 SO vs Kings Nov 28, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 32 | Stars | W 3–2 @ Kraken Nov 26, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 33 | Kings | W 2–1 OT vs Canucks Nov 29, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 34 | Panthers | W 8–3 @ Predators Nov 24, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 35 | Sabres | W 3–2 SO @ Wild Nov 29, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 36 | Blackhawks | W 5–3 vs Ducks Nov 30, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 37 | Wild | W 3–2 SO vs Avalanche Nov 28, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 38 | Hurricanes | W 1–0 OT vs Flames Nov 30, 2025 | 55% | +46 |
| 39 | Stars | W 6–1 vs Senators Nov 30, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 40 | Blues | W 1–0 vs Mammoth Nov 29, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 41 | Capitals | W 4–2 vs Maple Leafs Nov 28, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 42 | Stars | W 4–3 vs Mammoth Nov 28, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 43 | Blues | W 4–3 vs Senators Nov 28, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 44 | Capitals | W 5–1 vs Blue Jackets Nov 24, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 45 | Jets | W 5–2 @ Predators Nov 29, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 46 | Golden Knights | W 4–3 vs Sharks Nov 29, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 47 | Lightning | W 3–0 vs Flyers Nov 24, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 48 | Rangers | W 6–2 @ Bruins Nov 28, 2025 | 69% | +31 |
| 49 | Hurricanes | W 5–1 vs Jets Nov 28, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 50 | Avalanche | W 6–0 vs Sharks Nov 26, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 51 | Stars | W 8–3 @ Oilers Nov 25, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 52 | Avalanche | W 7–2 vs Canadiens Nov 29, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 53 | Lightning | W 4–1 @ Rangers Nov 29, 2025 | 76% | +24 |
| 54 | Rangers | L 1–4 vs Lightning Nov 29, 2025 | 24% | −24 |
| 55 | Canadiens | L 2–7 @ Avalanche Nov 29, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 56 | Oilers | L 3–8 vs Stars Nov 25, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 57 | Sharks | L 0–6 @ Avalanche Nov 26, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 58 | Jets | L 1–5 @ Hurricanes Nov 28, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 59 | Bruins | L 2–6 vs Rangers Nov 28, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 60 | Flyers | L 0–3 @ Lightning Nov 24, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 61 | Sharks | L 3–4 @ Golden Knights Nov 29, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 62 | Predators | L 2–5 vs Jets Nov 29, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 63 | Blue Jackets | L 1–5 @ Capitals Nov 24, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 64 | Senators | L 3–4 @ Blues Nov 28, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 65 | Mammoth | L 3–4 @ Stars Nov 28, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 66 | Maple Leafs | L 2–4 @ Capitals Nov 28, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 67 | Mammoth | L 0–1 @ Blues Nov 29, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 68 | Senators | L 1–6 @ Stars Nov 30, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 69 | Flames | L 0–1 OT @ Hurricanes Nov 30, 2025 | 45% | −46 |
| 70 | Avalanche | L 2–3 SO @ Wild Nov 28, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 71 | Ducks | L 3–5 @ Blackhawks Nov 30, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 72 | Wild | L 2–3 SO vs Sabres Nov 29, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 73 | Predators | L 3–8 vs Panthers Nov 24, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 74 | Canucks | L 1–2 OT @ Kings Nov 29, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 75 | Kraken | L 2–3 vs Stars Nov 26, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 76 | Kings | L 4–5 SO @ Ducks Nov 28, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 77 | Red Wings | L 3–6 vs Predators Nov 26, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 78 | Blues | L 2–3 @ Rangers Nov 24, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 79 | Blackhawks | L 3–4 vs Predators Nov 28, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 80 | Jets | L 3–4 @ Capitals Nov 26, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 81 | Blues | L 2–3 OT @ Devils Nov 26, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 82 | Red Wings | L 2–3 SO @ Bruins Nov 29, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 83 | Red Wings | L 3–6 vs Lightning Nov 28, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 84 | Flames | L 1–5 @ Lightning Nov 26, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 85 | Ducks | L 4–5 vs Canucks Nov 26, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 86 | Kraken | L 0–4 vs Oilers Nov 29, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 87 | Penguins | L 2–7 vs Maple Leafs Nov 29, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 88 | Senators | L 1–2 @ Kings Nov 24, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 89 | Golden Knights | L 1–4 vs Canadiens Nov 28, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 90 | Devils | L 3–5 vs Flyers Nov 29, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 91 | Blue Jackets | L 3–4 OT vs Penguins Nov 28, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 92 | Golden Knights | L 1–5 @ Mammoth Nov 24, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 93 | Sabres | L 2–4 @ Penguins Nov 26, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 94 | Panthers | L 2–4 vs Flyers Nov 26, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 95 | Canucks | L 2–3 @ Sharks Nov 28, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 96 | Mammoth | L 3–4 vs Canadiens Nov 26, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 97 | Blue Jackets | L 1–2 OT vs Maple Leafs Nov 26, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 98 | Hurricanes | L 2–4 vs Rangers Nov 26, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 99 | Islanders | L 3–4 SO vs Flyers Nov 28, 2025 | 67% | −67 |
| 100 | Panthers | L 3–5 vs Flames Nov 28, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 101 | Sabres | L 0–5 vs Devils Nov 28, 2025 | 70% | −70 |
| 102 | Red Wings | L 3–4 @ Devils Nov 24, 2025 | 70% | −70 |
| 103 | Blackhawks | L 3–4 OT vs Wild Nov 26, 2025 | 71% | −71 |
| 104 | Islanders | L 1–4 vs Capitals Nov 30, 2025 | 71% | −71 |
| 105 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 SO vs Senators Nov 26, 2025 | 71% | −71 |
| 106 | Islanders | L 1–3 vs Bruins Nov 26, 2025 | 73% | −73 |