luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 24, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Kings, Nov 24, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kings beat the Senators 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kings win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Kings.

The biggest swing (P3, 6:10 left): Brandt Clarke scored on a slap shot from 60 feet, worth 35 points of win probability to the Kings.

Final

Ottawa Senators 1
Los Angeles Kings 2

November 24, 2025 · Crypto.com Arena

Luck index +58 Kings lucky · −58 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 6, Kings win 4.

  1. 1 OTT 5 LAK 1
  2. 2 OTT 4 LAK 1
  3. 3 OTT 2 LAK 0
  4. 4 OTT 4 LAK 2
  5. 5 OTT 4 LAK 3
  6. 6 OTT 2 LAK 1
  7. 7 OTT 1 LAK 2
  8. 8 OTT 3 LAK 4
  9. 9 OTT 1 LAK 3
  10. 10 OTT 1 LAK 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Senators win 58% of them, Kings 42%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+21.5%
Senators by 213.7%
Senators by 123.2%
Kings by 125.0%
Kings by 28.1%
Kings by 3+8.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Kings: the final margin was Kings by 1, without the luck Kings by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators4412.50−1.50
Kings3221.53+0.47

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:38 Tripping on the Kings (Quinton Byfield): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 19:15 Holding on the Kings (Brandt Clarke): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 16:52 Slashing on the Senators (Lars Eller): 2 minutes on the power play +5% LAK
P2 7:32 Interference on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power play +5% LAK
P2 3:32 Holding on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P3 8:09 Tripping on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power play +8% LAK

When it happened

Kings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kings were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 16:52 Slashing on the Senators (Lars Eller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% LAK –
2 P2 7:32 Interference on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% LAK –
3 P2 3:32 Holding on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% OTT –
4 P3 14:29 Warren Foegele scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +26% LAK –
5 P3 9:11 Fabian Zetterlund scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 13% chance +28% OTT –
6 P3 8:09 Tripping on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% LAK –
7 P3 6:10 Brandt Clarke scored on a slap shot from 60 feetShooting · 3% chance +35% LAK –
8 P3 2:05 Quinton Byfield hit the left post with a wrist shot from 22 feetEmpty-net goals · 84% chance +5% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 35% · Kings 65%

Final margin
Kings by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Kings
Luck-adjusted margin
Kings by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Senators 58% · Kings 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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