2025-26 regular season · November 28, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Devils at Sabres, Nov 28, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Devils beat the Sabres 5–0, but the replays lean toward the Sabres: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 29 points of win probability to the Devils.
The biggest swing (P1, 7:53 left): Nico Hischier scored on a snap shot from 8 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Devils.
Final
 New Jersey Devils | 5 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Sabres | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Devils very lucky · −70 Sabres
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Devils win 3, Sabres win 7.
- 1 NJD 5 BUF 2
- 2 NJD 3 BUF 2
- 3 NJD 5 BUF 4
- 4 NJD 2 BUF 3
- 5 NJD 3 BUF 4
- 6 NJD 2 BUF 4
- 7 NJD 1 BUF 4
- 8 NJD 1 BUF 4
- 9 NJD 2 BUF 6
- 10 NJD 1 BUF 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Devils win 30% of them, Sabres 70%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Devils by 3+ | 7.3% |
| Devils by 2 | 6.1% |
| Devils by 1 | 16.3% |
| Sabres by 1 | 19.5% |
| Sabres by 2 | 11.8% |
| Sabres by 3+ | 39.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Devils | 29 | 5 | 1.86 | +3.14 |
 Sabres | 64 | 0 | 3.69 | −3.69 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 11:59 | Hooking on the Devils (Cody Glass): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BUF |
| P2 6:21 | Holding on the Sabres (Jack Quinn): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NJD |
| P2 4:47 | Interference goalkeeper on the Devils (Arseny Gritsyuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BUF |
When it happened
Sabres’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 7:53 | Nico Hischier scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 24% chance | +13% NJD | – |
| 2 | P2 12:15 | Arseny Gritsyuk scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance | +13% NJD | – |
| 3 | P2 11:59 | Hooking on the Devils (Cody Glass): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% BUF | – |
| 4 | P2 10:52 | Jason Zucker’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance | +4% NJD | – |
| 5 | P2 8:00 | Bowen Byram’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +3% NJD | – |
| 6 | P2 6:21 | Holding on the Sabres (Jack Quinn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% NJD | – |
| 7 | P2 4:47 | Interference goalkeeper on the Devils (Arseny Gritsyuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% BUF | – |
| 8 | P3 18:21 | Brenden Dillon scored on a slap shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chance | +6% NJD | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Devils 54% · Sabres 46%
- Final margin
- Devils by 5
- Luck in goals
- 5.1 for the Devils
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sabres by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Devils 30% · Sabres 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 8, 2025-26
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