luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 28, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Blue Jackets, Nov 28, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Blue Jackets 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Blue Jackets: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Penguins.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Penguins won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final (OT)

Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Columbus Blue Jackets 3

November 28, 2025 · Nationwide Arena

Luck index +60 Penguins very lucky · −60 Blue Jackets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 4, Blue Jackets win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 6 CBJ 2
  2. 2 PIT 5 CBJ 3
  3. 3 PIT 4 CBJ 3
  4. 4 PIT 4 CBJ 3
  5. 5 PIT 4 CBJ 5
  6. 6 PIT 1 CBJ 2
  7. 7 PIT 2 CBJ 4
  8. 8 PIT 0 CBJ 3
  9. 9 PIT 2 CBJ 5
  10. 10 PIT 2 CBJ 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Penguins win 40% of them, Blue Jackets 60%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+12.3%
Penguins by 28.4%
Penguins by 119.2%
Blue Jackets by 121.3%
Blue Jackets by 211.6%
Blue Jackets by 3+27.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Penguins by 1, without the luck Blue Jackets by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins4032.63+0.37
Blue Jackets4133.20−0.20

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:35 High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Zachary Aston-Reese): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 1:37 Holding on the Penguins (Kevin Hayes): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ
P2 17:14 Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Kent Johnson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PIT
P2 12:48 Tripping on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ

When it happened

Blue Jackets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blue Jackets were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:50 Sidney Crosby scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% PIT –
2 P1 6:20 Sean Monahan scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance +15% CBJ –
3 P2 16:09 Brendan Gaunce scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance +18% CBJ –
4 P2 0:04 Zach Werenski scored on a slap shot from 47 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% CBJ –
5 P3 19:47 Bryan Rust scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 6% chance +14% PIT –
6 P3 11:32 Sidney Crosby scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 24% chance +23% PIT –
7 P3 1:19 Sean Monahan’s slap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +9% PIT –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Penguins won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 41% · Blue Jackets 59%

Final margin
Penguins by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Blue Jackets by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 40% · Blue Jackets 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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