luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 26, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blues at Devils, Nov 26, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Blues 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Devils win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Devils.

The biggest swing (OT): the Devils won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final (OT)

St. Louis Blues 2
New Jersey Devils 3

November 26, 2025 · Prudential Center

Luck index +53 Devils lucky · −53 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blues win 5, Devils win 5.

  1. 1 STL 5 NJD 1
  2. 2 STL 6 NJD 3
  3. 3 STL 3 NJD 2
  4. 4 STL 3 NJD 2
  5. 5 STL 3 NJD 2
  6. 6 STL 4 NJD 5
  7. 7 STL 4 NJD 5
  8. 8 STL 0 NJD 2
  9. 9 STL 0 NJD 3
  10. 10 STL 2 NJD 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.3 replays ended

Blues win 53% of them, Devils 47%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blues by 3+19.2%
Blues by 211.0%
Blues by 123.0%
Devils by 123.3%
Devils by 28.4%
Devils by 3+15.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blues3422.26−0.26
Devils4022.16−0.16

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:17 Interference on the Blues (Nathan Walker): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P1 7:12 Interference on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P2 12:57 Tripping on the Blues (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 9:40 Hooking on the Devils (Juho Lammikko): 2 minutes on the power play +5% STL
P3 18:00 High sticking double minor on the Devils (Ondrej Palat): 4 minutes on the power play +12% STL

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Blues were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:44 Cam Fowler scored on a wrist shot from 43 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% STL –
2 P1 8:58 Timo Meier scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% NJD –
3 P1 5:23 Robert Thomas scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance +17% STL –
4 P2 11:11 Nico Hischier scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +17% NJD –
5 P2 9:40 Hooking on the Devils (Juho Lammikko): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% STL –
6 P3 18:00 High sticking double minor on the Devils (Ondrej Palat): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% STL –
7 P3 16:54 Jimmy Snuggerud’s wrist shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 19% chanceJimmy Snuggerud hit the left post with a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 18% chance +10% NJD –
8 OT The Devils won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blues 51% · Devils 49%

Final margin
Devils by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Blues 53% · Devils 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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