luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 26, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Hurricanes, Nov 26, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Hurricanes 4–2, but the replays lean toward the Hurricanes: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P2, 1:04 left): Artemi Panarin scored on a snap shot from 23 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final

New York Rangers 4
Carolina Hurricanes 2

November 26, 2025 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +66 Rangers very lucky · −66 Hurricanes

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 3, Hurricanes win 7.

  1. 1 NYR 3 CAR 0
  2. 2 NYR 2 CAR 1
  3. 3 NYR 2 CAR 1
  4. 4 NYR 1 CAR 2
  5. 5 NYR 4 CAR 5
  6. 6 NYR 3 CAR 5
  7. 7 NYR 3 CAR 5
  8. 8 NYR 1 CAR 4
  9. 9 NYR 3 CAR 7
  10. 10 NYR 0 CAR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Rangers win 34% of them, Hurricanes 66%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+8.0%
Rangers by 26.9%
Rangers by 118.8%
Hurricanes by 121.7%
Hurricanes by 212.7%
Hurricanes by 3+31.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 2, without the luck Hurricanes by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers3331.96+1.04
Hurricanes5523.81−1.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:44 Tripping on the Rangers (Artemi Panarin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 2:11 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P2 15:03 Slashing on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 13:40 Tripping on the Rangers (Mika Zibanejad): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P2 8:44 Boarding on the Rangers (Brett Berard): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P3 1:07 Roughing on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CAR

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:11 Seth Jarvis’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 37% chance +6% NYR –
2 P1 3:07 Noah Laba scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance +17% NYR –
3 P2 14:56 Shayne Gostisbehere scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 13% chance +18% CAR –
4 P2 13:40 Tripping on the Rangers (Mika Zibanejad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CAR –
5 P2 8:44 Boarding on the Rangers (Brett Berard): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CAR –
6 P2 1:04 Artemi Panarin scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 14% chance +22% NYR –
7 P3 19:15 Vincent Trocheck scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% NYR –
8 P3 9:07 Seth Jarvis scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 9% chance +13% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 45% · Hurricanes 55%

Final margin
Rangers by 2
Luck in goals
2.4 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 34% · Hurricanes 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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