luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 29, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Avalanche, Nov 29, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Canadiens 7–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 12:28 left): Brock Nelson scored on a wrist shot from 20 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Montreal Canadiens 2
Colorado Avalanche 7

November 29, 2025 · Ball Arena

Luck index +25 Avalanche about even · −25 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 2, Avalanche win 8.

  1. 1 MTL 5 COL 3
  2. 2 MTL 1 COL 0
  3. 3 MTL 2 COL 3
  4. 4 MTL 1 COL 2
  5. 5 MTL 2 COL 4
  6. 6 MTL 2 COL 5
  7. 7 MTL 2 COL 5
  8. 8 MTL 0 COL 4
  9. 9 MTL 1 COL 6
  10. 10 MTL 1 COL 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Canadiens win 25% of them, Avalanche 75%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+5.2%
Canadiens by 24.8%
Canadiens by 114.7%
Avalanche by 116.9%
Avalanche by 212.2%
Avalanche by 3+46.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 goals to the Avalanche: the final margin was Avalanche by 5, without the luck Avalanche by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3421.96+0.04
Avalanche5573.71+3.29

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:10 High sticking on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 6:35 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power play +3% COL
P3 15:42 Slashing on the Avalanche (Devon Toews): 2 minutes on the power play 0% MTL
P3 14:15 High sticking on the Canadiens (Jake Evans): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL
P3 10:38 Cross checking on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL
P3 4:53 Slashing on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:10 High sticking on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
2 P1 15:40 Zachary Bolduc’s snap shot from 26 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +3% COL –
3 P1 15:19 Nick Suzuki’s wrist shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance +2% COL –
4 P1 12:28 Brock Nelson scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% COL –
5 P1 6:35 Gabriel Landeskog scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 23% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +13% COL –
6 P2 19:10 Brent Burns scored on a snap shot from 38 feetShooting · 6% chance +8% COL –
7 P2 16:05 Brock Nelson scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 15% chance +3% COL –
8 P2 11:33 Ivan Demidov scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 7% chance +3% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 4% · Avalanche 96%

Final margin
Avalanche by 5
Luck in goals
2.4 for the Avalanche
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 25% · Avalanche 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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