luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 30, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Blackhawks, Nov 30, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Blackhawks beat the Ducks 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blackhawks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

The biggest swing (P3, 15:50 left): A Blackhawks goal came off the board on review (off side), worth 28 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final

Anaheim Ducks 3
Chicago Blackhawks 5

November 30, 2025 · United Center

Luck index +46 Blackhawks lucky · −46 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 5, Blackhawks win 5.

  1. 1 ANA 4 CHI 1
  2. 2 ANA 2 CHI 0
  3. 3 ANA 3 CHI 1
  4. 4 ANA 2 CHI 1
  5. 5 ANA 5 CHI 4
  6. 6 ANA 1 CHI 2
  7. 7 ANA 5 CHI 6
  8. 8 ANA 2 CHI 4
  9. 9 ANA 2 CHI 5
  10. 10 ANA 1 CHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Ducks win 46% of them, Blackhawks 54%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+14.8%
Ducks by 29.2%
Ducks by 122.0%
Blackhawks by 122.2%
Blackhawks by 212.0%
Blackhawks by 3+19.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Blackhawks by 2, without the luck Blackhawks by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks4032.35+0.65
Blackhawks3642.69+1.31

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 6:05 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Teuvo Teravainen): 2 minutes on the power play +2% ANA
P1 2:24 Cross checking on the Ducks (Ryan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CHI
P1 1:40 Hooking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CHI
P2 9:00 Slashing on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 5:30 Holding on the Blackhawks (Frank Nazar): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P2 3:09 Cross checking on the Blackhawks (Frank Nazar): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA
P3 15:55 Tripping on the Ducks (Drew Helleson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% CHI
P3 15:50 A Blackhawks goal came off the board on review (off side) +28% ANA

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:45 Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% ANA –
2 P1 19:13 Olen Zellweger scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% ANA –
3 P1 9:35 Chris Kreider scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 15% chance +9% ANA –
4 P1 2:03 Tyler Bertuzzi scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 21% chance +8% CHI –
5 P2 13:17 Ryan Greene scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% CHI –
6 P2 7:26 Colton Dach scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 22% chance +18% CHI –
7 P3 15:50 A Blackhawks goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +28% ANA –
8 P3 10:05 Connor Bedard scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 25% chance +24% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 14% · Blackhawks 86%

Final margin
Blackhawks by 2
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Blackhawks by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 46% · Blackhawks 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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