luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 26, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Ducks, Nov 26, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Ducks 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canucks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (P3, 4:02 left): Max Sasson scored on a tip from 6 feet, worth 36 points of win probability to the Canucks.

Final

Vancouver Canucks 5
Anaheim Ducks 4

November 26, 2025 · Honda Center

Luck index +56 Canucks lucky · −56 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 4, Ducks win 6.

  1. 1 VAN 6 ANA 2
  2. 2 VAN 3 ANA 1
  3. 3 VAN 5 ANA 4
  4. 4 VAN 3 ANA 2
  5. 5 VAN 5 ANA 6
  6. 6 VAN 6 ANA 7
  7. 7 VAN 1 ANA 3
  8. 8 VAN 3 ANA 6
  9. 9 VAN 0 ANA 4
  10. 10 VAN 1 ANA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Canucks win 44% of them, Ducks 56%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+18.9%
Canucks by 27.9%
Canucks by 117.1%
Ducks by 117.6%
Ducks by 29.6%
Ducks by 3+28.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Canucks by 1, without the luck Canucks by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks4743.82+0.18
Ducks7244.84−0.84

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:14 Holding on the Ducks (Troy Terry): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 9:42 Holding on the Ducks (Alex Killorn): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 6:46 Interference on the Canucks (David Kampf): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P1 0:26 Cross checking on the Canucks (Evander Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 5:47 Tripping on the Canucks (Linus Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 0:32 Tripping on the Canucks (Aatu Räty): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA
P3 17:35 Hooking on the Ducks (Nikita Nesterenko): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN
P3 16:29 Interference goalkeeper on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA
P3 7:33 High sticking on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play +8% ANA

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:11 Linus Karlsson scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance +15% VAN –
2 P1 8:13 Evander Kane scored on a snap shot from 41 feetShooting · 5% chance +14% VAN –
3 P2 19:51 Jackson LaCombe scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% ANA –
4 P2 10:56 Conor Garland scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% VAN –
5 P2 3:41 Leo Carlsson scored on a backhand shot from 20 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% ANA –
6 P2 1:26 Mason McTavish scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 11% chance +22% ANA –
7 P3 7:33 High sticking on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% ANA –
8 P3 4:02 Max Sasson scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance +36% VAN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 55% · Ducks 45%

Final margin
Canucks by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Canucks by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 44% · Ducks 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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