2025-26 regular season · November 26, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Red Wings, Nov 26, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Red Wings 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 43 points of win probability to the Predators.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 17:40 left): Roman Josi scored on a snap shot from 30 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Predators. The biggest single swing (P3, 5:46 left): Ryan O'Reilly scored on a snap shot from 6 feet.
Final
 Nashville Predators | 6 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Predators lucky · −49 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 5, Red Wings win 5.
- 1 NSH 7 DET 3
- 2 NSH 4 DET 1
- 3 NSH 4 DET 2
- 4 NSH 3 DET 2
- 5 NSH 4 DET 3
- 6 NSH 3 DET 4
- 7 NSH 4 DET 5
- 8 NSH 2 DET 4
- 9 NSH 0 DET 3
- 10 NSH 0 DET 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Predators win 51% of them, Red Wings 49%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 21.5% |
| Predators by 2 | 10.4% |
| Predators by 1 | 18.9% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 22.0% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 9.7% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 17.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 42 | 5 | 2.91 | +2.09 |
 Red Wings | 46 | 3 | 2.97 | +0.03 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 4:51 | High sticking on the Red Wings (Nate Danielson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 2:26 | Slashing on the Red Wings (Alex DeBrincat): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 1:08 | Hooking on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 15:26 | Cross checking on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 10:15 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Moritz Seider): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P2 6:25 | Holding on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
| P2 4:57 | Cross checking on the Predators (Nick Blankenburg): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
| P2 2:49 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 4:12 | Michael Bunting scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 15% chance | +15% NSH | – |
| 2 | P2 14:30 | Alex DeBrincat scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 22% chance | +16% DET | – |
| 3 | P2 3:26 | James van Riemsdyk scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 23% chance | +18% DET | – |
| 4 | P3 17:55 | Nick Blankenburg scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 14% chance | +22% NSH | – |
| 5 | P3 17:40 | The game turned hereRoman Josi scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 6% chance | +25% NSH | – |
| 6 | P3 16:56 | Ben Chiarot scored on a wrist shot from 73 feetShooting · 1% chance | +27% DET | – |
| 7 | P3 5:46 | Ryan O'Reilly scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 21% chance | +30% NSH | – |
| 8 | P3 5:18 | Erik Haula scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance | +8% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 76% · Red Wings 24%
- Final margin
- Predators by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Predators by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 51% · Red Wings 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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