luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 26, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Avalanche, Nov 26, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Sharks 6–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 16:21 left): Ross Colton scored on a snap shot from 23 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

San Jose Sharks 0
Colorado Avalanche 6

November 26, 2025 · Ball Arena

Luck index +25 Avalanche lucky · −25 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 3, Avalanche win 7.

  1. 1 SJS 4 COL 1
  2. 2 SJS 3 COL 2
  3. 3 SJS 6 COL 5
  4. 4 SJS 4 COL 5
  5. 5 SJS 1 COL 3
  6. 6 SJS 1 COL 4
  7. 7 SJS 2 COL 5
  8. 8 SJS 2 COL 6
  9. 9 SJS 0 COL 5
  10. 10 SJS 3 COL 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sharks win 25% of them, Avalanche 75%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+6.2%
Sharks by 25.1%
Sharks by 114.1%
Avalanche by 116.0%
Avalanche by 29.6%
Avalanche by 3+49.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 goals to the Avalanche: the final margin was Avalanche by 6, without the luck Avalanche by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks3902.56−2.56
Avalanche6264.46+1.54

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:30 High sticking on the Sharks (Adam Gaudette): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 2:15 Interference on the Sharks (William Eklund): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 13:42 Holding on the Avalanche (Devon Toews): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P2 10:55 Holding on the Sharks (Ty Dellandrea): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL
P2 6:40 Hooking on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P2 3:56 Tripping on the Avalanche (Joel Kiviranta): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P3 12:42 Tripping on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P3 9:25 Interference on the Sharks (Vincent Desharnais): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:21 Ross Colton scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% COL –
2 P1 12:11 Devon Toews missed the net with a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 25% chance +3% SJS –
3 P1 7:30 High sticking on the Sharks (Adam Gaudette): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% COL –
4 P1 2:15 Interference on the Sharks (William Eklund): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% COL –
5 P1 0:53 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a slap shot from 47 feetShooting · 5% chance +13% COL –
6 P2 18:17 Ty Dellandrea’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 10% chanceTy Dellandrea’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +4% COL –
7 P2 16:16 Sam Malinski scored on a wrist shot from 42 feetShooting · 3% chance +8% COL –
8 P2 15:09 Josh Manson scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 3% chance +3% COL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 6% · Avalanche 94%

Final margin
Avalanche by 6
Luck in goals
3.1 for the Avalanche
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 25% · Avalanche 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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