Blues lucky 2 
Senators unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Blues win 29% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Dec 1, 2025 – Dec 7, 2025
NHL week 9: who deserved to win
9 of 55 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Blues beat the Senators 2–1 in a game they win 29% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 55 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Blues lucky 2 Senators unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Blues win 29% of replays 
Islanders lucky 2 
Lightning unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 34% of replays Lightning unlucky 1 Islanders lucky 2 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 34% of replays 
Red Wings unlucky 5 
Blue Jackets lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Blue Jackets win 36% of replays 
Mammoth lucky 4 
Canucks unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Mammoth win 37% of replays 
Sharks lucky 4 
Hurricanes unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 38% of replays 
Ducks lucky 4 Blues unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Ducks win 38% of replays 
Sabres unlucky 1 
Jets lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Jets win 38% of replays Blue Jackets lucky 5 
Devils unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Blue Jackets win 38% of replays 
Penguins 4 Lightning 3 Coin flip · Penguins win 40% of replays Blues 2 
Bruins 5 Coin flip · Bruins win 42% of replays 
Maple Leafs 5 Hurricanes 1 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 42% of replays 
Wild 2 Canucks 4 Coin flip · Canucks win 43% of replays Penguins 2 
Stars 3 Coin flip · Stars win 47% of replays Red Wings 4 
Kraken 3 Coin flip · Red Wings win 47% of replays 
Predators 2 
Panthers 1 Coin flip · Predators win 47% of replays 
Golden Knights 3 
Rangers 2 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 48% of replays Kraken 4 
Oilers 9 Coin flip · Oilers win 48% of replays Stars 3 Devils 0 Coin flip · Stars win 49% of replays 
Capitals 3 
Kings 1 Coin flip · Capitals win 50% of replays Rangers 4 Senators 2 Coin flip · Rangers win 51% of replays Blues 4 
Canadiens 3 Coin flip · Blues win 51% of replays Capitals 7 Sharks 1 Coin flip · Capitals win 52% of replays Islanders 1 Panthers 4 Coin flip · Panthers win 52% of replays 
Blackhawks 3 Golden Knights 4 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 52% of replays Wild 1 
Flames 4 Coin flip · Flames win 54% of replays Mammoth 0 Flames 2 Coin flip · Flames win 55% of replays Wild 1 Oilers 0 Coin flip · Wild win 56% of replays Devils 1 Bruins 4 Coin flip · Bruins win 56% of replays Jets 1 Sabres 5 Coin flip · Sabres win 56% of replays Capitals 3 Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 57% of replays Golden Knights 3 Devils 0 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 57% of replays Blackhawks 2 Kings 1 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 58% of replays Canucks 1 
Avalanche 3 Coin flip · Avalanche win 59% of replays Penguins 5 
Flyers 1 Coin flip · Penguins win 59% of replays Flames 1 Predators 5 Coin flip · Predators win 59% of replays Sharks 1 Stars 4 Replays agree · Stars win 60% of replays Mammoth 3 Sharks 6 Replays agree · Sharks win 60% of replays Avalanche 3 Islanders 6 Replays agree · Islanders win 61% of replays Blue Jackets 0 Capitals 2 Replays agree · Capitals win 61% of replays Mammoth 7 Ducks 0 Replays agree · Mammoth win 62% of replays Jets 2 Canadiens 3 Replays agree · Canadiens win 62% of replays Sabres 2 Flyers 5 Replays agree · Flyers win 62% of replays Avalanche 3 Flyers 2 Replays agree · Avalanche win 62% of replays Bruins 4 Red Wings 5 Replays agree · Red Wings win 62% of replays Avalanche 3 Rangers 2 Replays agree · Avalanche win 63% of replays Blue Jackets 6 Panthers 7 Replays agree · Panthers win 66% of replays Stars 2 Rangers 3 Replays agree · Rangers win 68% of replays Jets 2 Oilers 6 Replays agree · Oilers win 69% of replays Canadiens 2 Maple Leafs 1 Replays agree · Canadiens win 70% of replays Maple Leafs 4 Panthers 1 Replays agree · Maple Leafs win 73% of replays Senators 5 Canadiens 2 Replays agree · Senators win 73% of replays Blackhawks 0 Kings 6 Replays agree · Kings win 78% of replays Predators 3 Hurricanes 6 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 80% of replays Blackhawks 1 Ducks 7 Replays agree · Ducks win 94% of replays Week 9 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues | W 2–1 @ Senators Dec 6, 2025 | 29% | +71 |
| 2 | Islanders | W 2–0 @ Lightning Dec 6, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 3 | Islanders | W 2–1 vs Lightning Dec 2, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 4 | Blue Jackets | W 6–5 SO vs Red Wings Dec 4, 2025 | 36% | +64 |
| 5 | Mammoth | W 4–1 @ Canucks Dec 5, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 6 | Sharks | W 4–1 @ Hurricanes Dec 7, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 7 | Ducks | W 4–1 @ Blues Dec 1, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 8 | Jets | W 4–1 vs Sabres Dec 5, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 9 | Blue Jackets | W 5–3 @ Devils Dec 1, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 10 | Penguins | W 4–3 @ Lightning Dec 4, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 11 | Bruins | W 5–2 vs Blues Dec 4, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 12 | Maple Leafs | W 5–1 @ Hurricanes Dec 4, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 13 | Canucks | W 4–2 vs Wild Dec 6, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 14 | Stars | W 3–2 SO vs Penguins Dec 7, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 15 | Red Wings | W 4–3 @ Kraken Dec 6, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 16 | Predators | W 2–1 OT @ Panthers Dec 4, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 17 | Golden Knights | W 3–2 OT @ Rangers Dec 7, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 18 | Oilers | W 9–4 vs Kraken Dec 4, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 19 | Stars | W 3–0 @ Devils Dec 3, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 20 | Capitals | W 3–1 @ Kings Dec 2, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 21 | Rangers | W 4–2 @ Senators Dec 4, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 22 | Blues | W 4–3 @ Canadiens Dec 7, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 23 | Capitals | W 7–1 @ Sharks Dec 3, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 24 | Panthers | W 4–1 vs Islanders Dec 7, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 25 | Golden Knights | W 4–3 SO vs Blackhawks Dec 2, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 26 | Flames | W 4–1 vs Wild Dec 4, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 27 | Flames | W 2–0 vs Mammoth Dec 6, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 28 | Wild | W 1–0 @ Oilers Dec 2, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 29 | Bruins | W 4–1 vs Devils Dec 6, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 30 | Sabres | W 5–1 vs Jets Dec 1, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 31 | Ducks | W 4–3 SO vs Capitals Dec 5, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 32 | Golden Knights | W 3–0 @ Devils Dec 5, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 33 | Blackhawks | W 2–1 @ Kings Dec 4, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 34 | Avalanche | W 3–1 vs Canucks Dec 2, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 35 | Penguins | W 5–1 @ Flyers Dec 1, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 36 | Predators | W 5–1 vs Flames Dec 2, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 37 | Stars | W 4–1 vs Sharks Dec 5, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 38 | Sharks | W 6–3 vs Mammoth Dec 1, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 39 | Islanders | W 6–3 vs Avalanche Dec 4, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 40 | Capitals | W 2–0 vs Blue Jackets Dec 7, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 41 | Mammoth | W 7–0 @ Ducks Dec 3, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 42 | Canadiens | W 3–2 SO vs Jets Dec 3, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 43 | Flyers | W 5–2 vs Sabres Dec 3, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 44 | Avalanche | W 3–2 @ Flyers Dec 7, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 45 | Red Wings | W 5–4 vs Bruins Dec 2, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 46 | Avalanche | W 3–2 OT @ Rangers Dec 6, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 47 | Panthers | W 7–6 OT vs Blue Jackets Dec 6, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 48 | Rangers | W 3–2 OT vs Stars Dec 2, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 49 | Oilers | W 6–2 vs Jets Dec 6, 2025 | 69% | +31 |
| 50 | Canadiens | W 2–1 SO @ Maple Leafs Dec 6, 2025 | 70% | +30 |
| 51 | Maple Leafs | W 4–1 @ Panthers Dec 2, 2025 | 73% | +27 |
| 52 | Senators | W 5–2 @ Canadiens Dec 2, 2025 | 73% | +27 |
| 53 | Kings | W 6–0 vs Blackhawks Dec 6, 2025 | 78% | +22 |
| 54 | Hurricanes | W 6–3 vs Predators Dec 6, 2025 | 80% | +20 |
| 55 | Ducks | W 7–1 vs Blackhawks Dec 7, 2025 | 94% | +6 |
| 56 | Blackhawks | L 1–7 @ Ducks Dec 7, 2025 | 6% | −6 |
| 57 | Predators | L 3–6 @ Hurricanes Dec 6, 2025 | 20% | −20 |
| 58 | Blackhawks | L 0–6 @ Kings Dec 6, 2025 | 22% | −22 |
| 59 | Canadiens | L 2–5 vs Senators Dec 2, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 60 | Panthers | L 1–4 vs Maple Leafs Dec 2, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 61 | Maple Leafs | L 1–2 SO vs Canadiens Dec 6, 2025 | 30% | −30 |
| 62 | Jets | L 2–6 @ Oilers Dec 6, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 63 | Stars | L 2–3 OT @ Rangers Dec 2, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 64 | Blue Jackets | L 6–7 OT @ Panthers Dec 6, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 65 | Rangers | L 2–3 OT vs Avalanche Dec 6, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 66 | Bruins | L 4–5 @ Red Wings Dec 2, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 67 | Flyers | L 2–3 vs Avalanche Dec 7, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 68 | Sabres | L 2–5 @ Flyers Dec 3, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 69 | Jets | L 2–3 SO @ Canadiens Dec 3, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 70 | Ducks | L 0–7 vs Mammoth Dec 3, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 71 | Blue Jackets | L 0–2 @ Capitals Dec 7, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 72 | Avalanche | L 3–6 @ Islanders Dec 4, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 73 | Mammoth | L 3–6 @ Sharks Dec 1, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 74 | Sharks | L 1–4 @ Stars Dec 5, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 75 | Flames | L 1–5 @ Predators Dec 2, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 76 | Flyers | L 1–5 vs Penguins Dec 1, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 77 | Canucks | L 1–3 @ Avalanche Dec 2, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 78 | Kings | L 1–2 vs Blackhawks Dec 4, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 79 | Devils | L 0–3 vs Golden Knights Dec 5, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 80 | Capitals | L 3–4 SO @ Ducks Dec 5, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 81 | Jets | L 1–5 @ Sabres Dec 1, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 82 | Devils | L 1–4 @ Bruins Dec 6, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 83 | Oilers | L 0–1 vs Wild Dec 2, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 84 | Mammoth | L 0–2 @ Flames Dec 6, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 85 | Wild | L 1–4 @ Flames Dec 4, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 86 | Blackhawks | L 3–4 SO @ Golden Knights Dec 2, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 87 | Islanders | L 1–4 @ Panthers Dec 7, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 88 | Sharks | L 1–7 vs Capitals Dec 3, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 89 | Canadiens | L 3–4 vs Blues Dec 7, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 90 | Senators | L 2–4 vs Rangers Dec 4, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 91 | Kings | L 1–3 vs Capitals Dec 2, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 92 | Devils | L 0–3 vs Stars Dec 3, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 93 | Kraken | L 4–9 @ Oilers Dec 4, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 94 | Rangers | L 2–3 OT vs Golden Knights Dec 7, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 95 | Panthers | L 1–2 OT vs Predators Dec 4, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 96 | Kraken | L 3–4 vs Red Wings Dec 6, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 97 | Penguins | L 2–3 SO @ Stars Dec 7, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 98 | Wild | L 2–4 @ Canucks Dec 6, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 99 | Hurricanes | L 1–5 vs Maple Leafs Dec 4, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 100 | Blues | L 2–5 @ Bruins Dec 4, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 101 | Lightning | L 3–4 vs Penguins Dec 4, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 102 | Devils | L 3–5 vs Blue Jackets Dec 1, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 103 | Sabres | L 1–4 @ Jets Dec 5, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 104 | Blues | L 1–4 vs Ducks Dec 1, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 105 | Hurricanes | L 1–4 vs Sharks Dec 7, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 106 | Canucks | L 1–4 vs Mammoth Dec 5, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 107 | Red Wings | L 5–6 SO @ Blue Jackets Dec 4, 2025 | 64% | −64 |
| 108 | Lightning | L 1–2 @ Islanders Dec 2, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 109 | Lightning | L 0–2 vs Islanders Dec 6, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 110 | Senators | L 1–2 vs Blues Dec 6, 2025 | 71% | −71 |