2025-26 regular season · December 4, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blackhawks at Kings, Dec 4, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Blackhawks beat the Kings 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blackhawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
The biggest swing (P2, 13:43 left): Connor Bedard scored on a wrist shot from 7 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
Final
 Chicago Blackhawks | 2 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Blackhawks lucky · −42 Kings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blackhawks win 6, Kings win 4.
- 1 CHI 4 LAK 0
- 2 CHI 4 LAK 1
- 3 CHI 5 LAK 2
- 4 CHI 3 LAK 1
- 5 CHI 3 LAK 2
- 6 CHI 3 LAK 2
- 7 CHI 2 LAK 3
- 8 CHI 2 LAK 3
- 9 CHI 1 LAK 3
- 10 CHI 2 LAK 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Blackhawks win 58% of them, Kings 42%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 26.4% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 10.3% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 21.2% |
| Kings by 1 | 21.6% |
| Kings by 2 | 9.3% |
| Kings by 3+ | 11.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blackhawks | 48 | 2 | 2.96 | −0.96 |
 Kings | 47 | 1 | 2.34 | −1.34 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:00 | Interference on the Blackhawks (Matt Grzelcyk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P1 4:07 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P1 3:37 | High sticking on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P1 0:18 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Oliver Moore): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P2 13:52 | Tripping on the Kings (Joel Edmundson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CHI |
| P2 9:51 | Interference on the Blackhawks (Louis Crevier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P3 5:01 | Tripping on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CHI |
| P3 1:26 | Hooking on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% LAK |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 13:52 | Tripping on the Kings (Joel Edmundson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CHI | – |
| 2 | P2 13:43 | Connor Bedard scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 25% chance | +16% CHI | – |
| 3 | P2 9:51 | Interference on the Blackhawks (Louis Crevier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% LAK | – |
| 4 | P2 0:06 | Wyatt Kaiser scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% CHI | – |
| 5 | P3 9:22 | Trevor Moore scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% LAK | – |
| 6 | P3 5:01 | Tripping on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CHI | – |
| 7 | P3 2:42 | Alex Laferriere’s wrist shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance | +5% CHI | – |
| 8 | P3 1:26 | Hooking on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blackhawks 62% · Kings 38%
- Final margin
- Blackhawks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for the Blackhawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blackhawks by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Blackhawks 58% · Kings 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 9, 2025-26
- Blues at Senators Dec 6, 2025 · STL 2–1 · replay 29% for the winner
- Mammoth at Canucks Dec 5, 2025 · UTA 4–1 · replay 37% for the winner
- Sharks at Hurricanes Dec 7, 2025 · SJS 4–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ducks at Blues Dec 1, 2025 · ANA 4–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Sabres at Jets Dec 5, 2025 · WPG 4–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Blues at Bruins Dec 4, 2025 · BOS 5–2 · replay 42% for the winner
- Wild at Canucks Dec 6, 2025 · VAN 4–2 · replay 43% for the winner
- Penguins at Stars Dec 7, 2025 · DAL 3–2 SO · replay 47% for the winner
- Red Wings at Kraken Dec 6, 2025 · DET 4–3 · replay 47% for the winner
- Predators at Panthers Dec 4, 2025 · NSH 2–1 OT · replay 47% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Rangers Dec 7, 2025 · VGK 3–2 OT · replay 48% for the winner
- Kraken at Oilers Dec 4, 2025 · EDM 9–4 · replay 48% for the winner